Table 7.

Province-specific models for the incidences of dengue cases, fitted from 1996-2004 data.

Province	Variable	Regression coefficient	Standard error	R2
1. Petchaburi	Constant	-10.933	1.351	0.72
	ln(Population)	1	(offset)
	ln(Case Lag1/Pop Lag1)	0.351	0.007
	Rh Lag3	-0.016	0.007
	Tmean Lag1	0.051	0.013
	MEI Lag2	0.088	0.038
	MEI Lag5	-0.110	0.037
	sin12	0.098	0.039
2. Prachuap Khirikhan	Constant	-7.553	0.255	0.83
	ln(Population)	1	(offset)
	ln(Case Lag1/Pop Lag1)	0.393	0.027
	MEI Lag2	0.226	0.064
	MEI Lag3	-0.184	0.064
	cos12	-0.150	0.032
	sin12	0.069	0.033
3. Chumpon	Constant	-5.915	0.831	0.81
	ln(Population)	1	(offset)
	ln(Case Lag1/Pop Lag1)	0.324	0.035
	Rh Lag3	-0.029	0.010
	MEI Lag6	0.088	0.030
	cos12	-0.189	0.054
	sin12	0.094	0.046
4. Surat Thani	Constant	-5.621	0.493	0.84
	ln(Population)	1	(offset)
	ln(Case Lag1/Pop Lag1)	0.426	0.023
	Rh Lag3	-0.024	0.006
	cos12	-0.081	0.038
	sin12	0.093	0.036
5. Nakhon Sithammarat	Constant	-3.147	0.693	0.93
	ln(Population)	1	(offset)
	ln(Case Lag1/Pop Lag1)	0.443	0.017
	Rh Lag3	-0.029	0.008
	Rh Lag4	-0.028	0.009
	cos12	-0.191	0.035
	sin12	0.243	0.049
6. Chaingmai	Constant	-11.158	1.023	0.89
	ln(Population)	1	(offset)
	ln(Case Lag1/Pop Lag1)	0.326	0.022
	Tmean Lag2	0.026	0.011
	MEI Lag1	0.124	0.027
	cos12	-0.503	0.052
7. Lamphun	Constant	-16.343	2.193	0.79
	ln(Population)	1	(offset)
	ln(Case Lag1/Pop Lag1)	0.304	0.043
	Rh Lag5	0.011	0.005
	Tmean Lag1	0.045	0.017
	Tmean Lag3	0.042	0.015
	MEI Lag1	0.127	0.041
	cos12	-0.364	0.091
8. Lamphang	Constant	-10.794	0.994	0.88
	ln(Population)	1	(offset)
	ln(Case Lag1/Pop Lag1)	0.340	0.032
	Tmean Lag2	0.029	0.011
	MEI Lag1	0.118	0.030
	cos12	-0.395	0.066
	sin12	0.189	0.071
9. Phrae	Constant	-7.623	0.342	0.84
	ln(Population)	1	(offset)
	ln(Case Lag1/Pop Lag1)	0.402	0.033
	MEI Lag2	0.307	0.088
	MEI Lag3	-0.236	0.086
	cos12	-0.417	0.067
	sin12	0.257	0.063
10. Nan	Constant	-14.249	1.712	0.81
	ln(Population)	1	(offset)
	ln(Case Lag1/Pop Lag1)	0.243	0.033
	Tmean Lag1	0.059	0.019
	MEI Lag1	0.208	0.039
	cos12	-0.472	0.094
11. Phayao	Constant	-8.137	0.538	0.89
	ln(Population)	1	(offset)
	ln(Case Lag1/Pop Lag1)	0.296	0.041
	Rh Lag6	-0.012	0.005
	MEI Lag2	0.199	0.042
	cos12	-0.762	0.076
	sin12	0.250	0.106
12. Chaingrai	Constant	-17.189	1.954	0.90
	ln(Population)	1	(offset)
	ln(Case Lag1/Pop Lag1)	0.359	0.035
	Tmean Lag1	0.072	0.020
	Tmean Lag2	0.039	0.019
	MEI Lag1	0.127	0.035
	cos12	-0.283	0.089
	sin12	0.395	0.113
13. Maehongson	Constant	-16.716	1.614	0.67
	ln(Population)	1	(offset)
	ln(Case Lag1/Pop Lag1)	0.405	0.060
	Rh Lag5	-0.022	0.008
	Rh Lag6	0.023	0.008
	Tmean Lag1	0.115	0.019