Table 1.
Summary of selected experiments and results for the four models.
| Model | Driver 1 | Driver 2 | Outcome 1 | Outcome 2 | Outcome 3 | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUCITA | Household demographics | Outside labor | Land-use trajectories | Availability of outside labor dampens effects of household demography | ||
| Lot history | Land-use trajectories | Historic land use on a lot overrides effects of household demography | ||||
| IMSHED | Higher marriage age | Household size increase (slows) | Population growth (slows) | Habitat loss (slows) | Household numbers drive habitatloss more than population numbers | |
| Household fertility decreases | Household size increase (slows) | Population growth (slows) | Habitat loss (slows) | Effects occurred with temporal lags and nonlinearly | ||
| Electricity subsidies | Household size increase (no change) | Population growth (no change) | Habitat loss(slows) | Modest subsidies can succeed in conserving habitat | ||
| Proportion of young people migrating | Household size increase (slows) | Population growth (slows) | Habitat loss(slows) | Time lag for habitat preservation is higher for out-migration than for other factors | ||
| SYPRIA | Population growth | Household age | Immigration | (continues) | Agricultural land-use change | |
| SYPRIA | outperforms simple land- use change trend projects by accounting for household structure and dynamics | |||||
| Change in market opportunities | Infrastructure development | Adoption of market-based agriculture | Greater reliance on | middlemen | ||
| Mixed use strategy | (subsistence and market crops) better reflects reality Institutional change in land owner ship rules | Household choice of production locations | Agricultural land-use change | Adoptions of private-property rules slower than would normally be expected due to lingering advantages of common property | ||
| LUCIM | Pecuniary vs. non-pecuniary land values | Land cover | Fragmentation | Observed land-cover and fragmentation outcomes are consistent with a combination of pecuniary and non- pecuniary land values by agents | ||
| Optimal harvest cycle for land managers | Forest re-growth rates | Timing of land abandonment and regrowth | Model replicates reported/real-world timing of forest transition in Indiana |