Table 3.
Predictive value for the progression from UA to RA within one year using the erosion score of the Sharp van der Heijde method with different cut-off values for erosions
| SHS erosion score | n | PPV | (95% CI) | NPV | (95% CI) | Specificity | (95% CI) | Sensitivity | (95% CI) | LR+ | LR- | AUC (SEM) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥1 | 148 | 45 | 37-53 | 75 | 70-79 | 77 | 73-82 | 42 | 34-50 | 1.9 | 0.75 | 0.60 (0.028) |
| ≥2 | 92 | 51 | 41-61 | 73 | 69-78 | 87 | 84-91 | 29 | 22-36 | 2.3 | 0.80 | 0.58 (0.028) |
| ≥3 | 61 | 52 | 40-65 | 72 | 68-76 | 92 | 89-95 | 20 | 14-26 | 2.5 | 0.87 | 0.56 (0.028) |
| ≥4 | 39 | 56 | 41-72 | 71 | 67-75 | 95 | 93-98 | 14 | 8-19 | 2.9 | 0.90 | 0.55 (0.028) |
| ≥5 | 23 | 61 | 41-81 | 71 | 67-75 | 97 | 96-99 | 9 | 4-13 | 3.5 | 0.94 | 0.53 (0.028) |
n = number of UA patients positive for this cutoff.
AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; LR+ = positive likelihood ratio; LR- = negative likelihood ratio; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; RA = rheumatoid arthritis; SEM = standard error of measurement; SHS = Sharp/van der Heijde scoring; UA = undifferentiated arthritis.