Table 8.
Predictive value for having persistent disease in UA patients using different cut-off values for number of erosive joints
| Number of erosive joints | n | PPV | (95% CI) | NPV | (95% CI) | Specificity | (95% CI) | Sensitivity | (95% CI) | LR+ | LR- | AUC (SEM) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥1 | 148 | 65 | 57-73 | 41 | 36-46 | 75 | 69-81 | 31 | 26-36 | 1.2 | 0.93 | 53 (0.026) |
| ≥2 | 83 | 68 | 57-78 | 41 | 36-46 | 87 | 82-92 | 18 | 14-22 | 1.4 | 0.95 | 52 (0.026) |
| ≥3 | 50 | 70 | 57-83 | 41 | 36-45 | 93 | 89-96 | 11 | 8-15 | 1.5 | 0.96 | 52 (0.026) |
| ≥4 | 24 | 68 | 48-86 | 40 | 36-44 | 96 | 93-99 | 5 | 3-8 | 1.3 | 0.99 | 51 (0.026) |
| ≥5 | 15 | 73 | 51-96 | 40 | 36-44 | 98 | 96-100 | 4 | 2-6 | 1.8 | 0.98 | 51 (0.026) |
n = number of UA patients positive for this cutoff.
Patients with remission 205 (39.6%).
Patients with persistent disease 313 (60.4%).
AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; LR+ = positive likelihood ratio; LR- = negative likelihood ratio; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; SEM = standard error of measurement; UA = undifferentiated arthritis.