Table 3.
Socio-demographic predictors of drug dependence by baseline stage of use (conditional models).
| T2 onset of illicit drug dependence among T1 non-users |
T2 onset of illicit drug dependence among T1 non-abusive users |
T2 onset of drug dependence among T1 non-dependent abusers |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR | LOWOR | UPOR | χ2 | P-value | OR | LOWOR | UPOR | χ2 | P-value | OR | LOWOR | UPOR | X2 | P-value | |
| Age (years) | |||||||||||||||
| 15–24 | 21.7 | 4.4 | 106.8 | 15.1 | 0.000 | 8.3 | 2.0 | 34.0 | 12.5 | 0.002 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 16.4 | 7.7 | 0.021 |
| 25–34 | – | – | – | – | – | 8.2 | 2.4 | 27.6 | – | – | 4.9 | 1.5 | 15.9 | – | – |
| 35–44 | |||||||||||||||
| Male | 7.8 | 1.5 | 41.6 | 6.1 | 0.013 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.336 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.1 |
| Race (non-white) | 2.3 | 0.9 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 0.064 | 2.8 | 0.978 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 0.048 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 9.9 | 1.5 | 0.219 |
| Education 0–11 years | 13.9 | 2.7 | 71.1 | 11.5 | 0.003 | 35.5 | 4.6 | 272.7 | 27.4 | 0.000 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 69.0 | 3.4 | 0.335 |
| Education 12 years | 9.7 | 2.1 | 45.5 | – | – | 28.5 | 3.2 | 255.0 | – | – | 4.3 | 0.3 | 68.8 | – | – |
| Education 13–15 years | – | – | – | – | – | 3.7 | 0.5 | 28.3 | – | – | 1.7 | 0.1 | 23.0 | – | – |
| Metro area | 0.9 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.980 | 1.007 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 0.450 | 13.9 | 1.7 | 116.6 | 15.9 | 0.001 |
| Urban area | 0.9 | 0.2 | 4.8 | – | – | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.4 | – | – | 8.5 | 1.2 | 61.6 | – | – |
| Rural area | – | – | – | – | – | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.4 | – | – | 6.2 | 0.5 | 82.4 | – | – |
| Weekly smoke without dependence | 0.4 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 0.116 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 0.057 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 7.9 | 0.019 |
| Tobacco dependence | 3.2 | 0.5 | 21.9 | – | – | 3.0 | 1.2 | 7.6 | – | – | 2.6 | 0.6 | 11.8 | – | – |
| 12 drinks without abuse | 1.7 | 0.5 | 5.8 | 11.1 | 0.011 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 0.076 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.707 |
| Alcohol abuse without dependence | 9.2 | 2.0 | 43.1 | – | – | 1.2 | 0.2 | 7.3 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.0 | 5.2 | – | – |
| Alcohol dependence | 3.3 | 0.5 | 21.6 | – | – | 4.2 | 0.956 | 18.2 | – | – | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.8 | – | – |
| Drug use last 12 months | – | – | – | – | – | 2.2 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 0.119 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 0.059 |
| Drug use later | – | – | – | – | – | 2.2 | 0.8 | 6.4 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.006 | – | – |
| Drug abuse last 12 months | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.5 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.364 |
| Drug abuse later | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.4 | – | – |
| Drug use onset early | – | – | – | – | – | 1.3 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.439 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 0.235 |
| Drug use onset average | – | – | – | – | – | 1.5 | 0.7 | 3.2 | – | – | 0.8 | 0.2 | 3.0 | – | – |
| Drug abuse onset early | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.9 | 0.4 | 9.3 | 0.7 | 0.695 |
| Drug abuse onset average | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.6 | 0.4 | 6.3 | – | – |
| Number of cases | 2012 | 2127 | 333 | ||||||||||||
| Number of drug-dependent cases | 17 | 43 | 17 | ||||||||||||
OR: odds ratio; LOWOR: lower bound OR based on 95% confidence intervals; UPOR: upper bound OR based on 95% confidence intervals.