Table 3.

Predicted variability and uncertainty for coupled models under alternative input assumptions.

Variability	Uncertainty	No. of coupled models	Variability ratioa	Uncertainty ratiob	Overall uncertainty ratioc	“Crude” uncertainty ratiod
Base	Base	1	2.2	1.4	3.2
		2	2.4	1.9	4.5	6.8
		3	3.2	2.7	8.7	29.3
	Low	1	2.2	1.5	3.4
		2	2.4	1.6	3.8	6.7
		3	3.2	2.0	6.6	22.7
	High	1	2.2	2.3	5.2
		2	2.4	2.6	6.2	14.5
		3	3.2	5.7	18.4	80.7
	Mixed-1	1	2.2	1.4	3.2
		2	2.4	1.7	4.2	7.4
		3	3.2	2.8	9.1	36.5
	Mixed-2	1	2.2	1.5	3.3
		2	2.4	1.9	4.7	7.1
		3	3.2	2.5	8.2	24.7
Alternative-1	Base	1	1.4	1.4	1.9
		2	1.4	1.7	2.4	2.8
		3	1.4	3.1	4.2	5.9
Alternative-2	Base	1	1.3	1.4	1.8
		2	1.4	1.7	2.4	3.3
		3	2.2	2.1	4.8	12.5

^aRatio of 95th percentile of variability to central tendency (i.e., 50th percentile of uncertainty for the 50th percentile of variability) (see Fig. 5a).

^bRatio of 95th percentile of uncertainty for the central tendency to central tendency (see Fig. 5a).

^cRatio of 95th percentile of uncertainty for the 95th percentile of variability to central tendency (see Fig. 5a).

^dCrude ratio is based on the product of the “overall ratio” for each of the models included in the coupled model analysis.