Table 4.

Fit statistics for logistic regression models.

Model	Log Likelihood	Number of parameters	DIC	BIC
All paths estimated	−2037.0	33	4246.6	4306.9
All paths, no sex differences	−2047.9	21	4205.6	4244.0
Age 17-age 24 continuity	−2038.7	29	4229.1	4282.1
Age 17-age 24 continuity, no sex differences	−2049.2	19	4197.8	4232.6
Standard cross-lag	−2051.2	25	4233.2	4278.8
Standard cross-lag, no sex differences	−2061.7	17	4212.3	4243.5

Note: Number of parameters is the number of freely estimated parameters in the model; BIC is Schwartz's Bayesian Information Criterion; DIC is Draper's Information Criterion. For all information criteria, smaller values indicate better fit. Bold type indicates the best-fitting model by each fit statistic. The “all paths estimated” model includes all regression paths (each age-24 disorder predicted by status on each disorder at the two previous assessments, and each age-20 disorder predicted by status on the two age-17 disorders) and allows for different models for males and females. The “all paths estimated, no sex differences” model is the same except it does not allow for sex differences in the paths. The “age 17-age 24 continuity” model is like the standard cross-lag model (in which any association between age-17 and age-24 disorders is completely mediated by age-20 status) except it also includes direct paths from MDD at 17 to MDD at 24 and from DAD at 17 to DAD at 24; it allows for different models for males and females. The “age 17-age 24 continuity, no sex differences model” is the same except it does not allow for sex differences in the paths. The “standard cross-lag” model assumes that any association between age-17 and age-24 disorders is completely mediated by age-20 status (the regression paths “go through” the intermediate assessment age); it allows for different models for males and females. The “standard cross-lag, no sex differences” model is the same except it does not allow for sex differences in the paths.