Table 1. Posterior mean and 95% credible intervals for the baseline model fitted to each of the three outbreak waves.

Model Parameters		2004/5	2005	2007
Parameter	Description	Posterior mean (95% C.I.)
Spatial Transmissibility
	Intensity	3.96 (0.45–14.5)	1.85 (0.75–4.88)	2.06 (0.57–6.02)
	Offset	3.46 (0.36–13.68)	0.83 (0.22–3.42)	0.77 (0.04–2.21)
	Power	2.14 (1.57–3.07)	2.02 (1.75–2.35)	1.81 (1.60–2.08)
Duration between infection and report
	Shape	1.81 (1.24–2.75)	2.33 (1.71–3.21)	2.45 (1.49–4.54)
	Scale	3.37 (2.04–5.01)	2.09 (1.33–3.12)	3.98 (2.11–6.15)
	Mean	5.87 (4.59–7.40)	4.74 (3.84–5.91)	9.10 (7.29–11.21)
	Variance	20.04 (10.25–34.82)	10.09 (5.29–17.80)	36.29 (18.69–60.14)