Table III.

Comparison of the predicted values with seroprevalence data observed in African and European wild birds (used for model calibration), incidence data observed in African sentinel chickens and annual infection incidence estimated in African and European horses (used to compute bite relative risk in incidental hosts).

Animals	Date	Pop.d	Observed or estimated data			Predicted data
			Datae	Rates (95% CIf)	References
Wild birdsa
Wet African area	15 Nov	R	6/51	0.12 (0.04–0.24)	[15]	0.10
		M	6/201	0.03 (0.01–0.06)	[15]	0.05
Dry African area	1 Oct	R+L	11/152	0.07 (0.04–0.13)	[15]	0.07
European area	15 Apr	R	4/271	0.01 (0.00–0.04)	[46]	0.01
		M	18/240	0.07 (0.04–0.12)	[46]	0.07
Sentinel chickenb
Dry African area				0.14 (0.07–0.29)	[13]	0.14
Horsesc
Wet African area				0.21 (0.20–0.22)	[14]	0.24
Dry African area				0.19 (0.18–0.21)	[12]	0.22
European area				0.04 (0.03–0.04)	[23]	0.03

^aObserved seroprevalence in Djoud’j National park (Senegal, wet African area), Ferlo area (Senegal, dry African area), and Seville area (Spain, European area).

^bObserved incidence rate in Ferlo area (Senegal, dry African area).

^cAnnual incidence rates estimated from age-specific seroprevalence data collected in Senegal river valley (Senegal, wet African area), Ferlo area (Senegal, dry African area), and Var area (France, European area).

^dPop.: population, R: residents, M: long distance migrants, and L: local migrants.

^eNumber positive and number tested.

^fConfidence interval.