Table 2.

Baseline antecedents (at age 18–30 years) of subsequent heart failure among 2637 black CARDIA participants

Cardiovascular risk factor at baseline		Bivariate models		Multivariate model1
		Hazard Ratio	p-value	Hazard Ratio	p-value
Age (years) (per SD, 3.8 years)		1.5 (1.0–2.3)	0.05
Sex (% male)		0.9 (0.4–2.0)	0.81
Education	Less than high school	2.6 (1.0–7.2)	0.06
	High school graduate	1.4 (0.6–3.4)	0.42
	More than high school	---	---
Diastolic blood pressure (mmHg)2 (per SD, 10.0 mmHg)		2.5 (1.8–3.5)	< 0.001	2.1 (1.4–3.1)	<0.001
Systolic blood pressure (mmHg)2 (per SD, 10.9 mmHg)		1.9 (1.4–2.6)	< 0.001
Body mass index (kg/m2) (per SD, 5.7 kg/m2)		2.0 (1.6–2.5)	< 0.001	1.4 (1.0–1.9)	0.02
Diabetes		6.7(2.0–22)	0.002
HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) (per SD, 13.3 mg/dL)		0.4 (0.2–0.7)	< 0.001	0.6 (0.4–1.0)	0.05
LDL cholesterol (mg/dL) (per SD, 32.4 mg/dL)		1.1(0.7–1.6)	0.70
Chronic kidney disease		13.8 (3.2–59)	< 0.001	19.8 (4.5–87)	< 0.001
Family history premature coronary disease		1.6 (0.5–4.6)	0.40
Current tobacco use		1.4 (0.6–3.1)	0.41
Excessive alcohol use		0.9 (0.2–3.8)	0.88
Prior pregnancy (among women)		1.3 (0.4–3.7)	0.63

¹Variables selected by forward selection and retained if associated with heart failure at p<0.05

²Systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure are collinear. Each is significant in the multivariate models without the other present. When both are presented for forward selection (as they are in the multivariable models above) diastolic blood pressure is retained in the final model. Replacing diastolic blood pressure with systolic blood pressure would leave the hazard ratios for the other covariates unchanged; the adjusted HR for systolic blood pressure per 10.9 mmHg = 1.5, 95% CI 1.1–2.1, p=0.01