Table 1. Model Inputs: Selected Parameters Estimates.

Parameter	Value	Range	References
Population Prevalence (%)
GERD Symptoms Prevalence	18.6	17.6–19.9	[3], [12], [15], [17], [18], [19], [20], [21], [22], [23], [24]
BE Prevalence	4.2	0.8–25	[10], [11], [12], [25], [26], [27], [28], [29], [31], [43]
Transition Probabilities
Normal to GERD   Symptoms	Derived From Calibration	Derived From Calibration
Normal to BE	″	″
GERD to BE	″	″
BE to Undetected CA	″	″
Undetected CA to  Detected CA	4.5 years	4–9 years	[32], [38]
Chemoprevention
Aspirin Effect on EAC	50% Reduction		[36]

This table describes the literature-derived initial ranges and values used as model input parameters. Population prevalences of GERD and BE are not themselves model parameters, but they are used to derive values for transition or progression from the “Normal” state to the “GERD” and “BE” states, respectively.

Derivation of these prevalence values are described in the Appendix S1.

Abbreviations: GERD = gastroesophageal reflux disease; BE = Barrett's esophagus.