Table 3. Summary of model performances and the estimated coefficients for Maricopa County influenza.
Model | Fit | Pred. | AR | MA | Enviromental vars | |||||
RMSE | AIC | RMSE | Est. | Pr >|t| | Est. | Pr >|t| | Vars | Est. | Pr >|t| | |
SARIMA(0,1,0)(1,0,0) | 0.5862 | 280.582 | 0.5123 | 0.34964 | <.0001 | |||||
SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,0,0) | 0.5859 | 282.454 | 0.5107 | 0.02694 | 0.7228 | |||||
0.34854 | <.0001 | |||||||||
SARIMAX(1,0,1)(0,1,0) with LST | 0.6087 | 196.920 | 0.6063 | 0.86496 | <.0001 | −0.20367 | 0.062 | LST (Lag 3) | −0.0418 | 0.004 |
SARIMAX(2,0,0)(0,1,0) with Tmean | 0.5493 | 170.958 | 0.6058 | 1.2497 | <.0001 | Tmean (Lag 1) | 0.0188 | 0.012 | ||
−0.37896 | 0.0001 | Tmean (Lag 7) | 0.015 | 0.044 | ||||||
SARIMAX(1,0,0)(0,1,0) with RHMax | 0.6238 | 207.660 | 0.6142 | 0.9321 | <.0001 | RhMax (Lag 3) | 0.0101 | 0.022 | ||
RhMax (Lag 6) | 0.0071 | 0.093 | ||||||||
SARIMAX(1,0,0)(0,1,0) with RHMin | 0.6382 | 210.540 | 0.5867 | 0.8979 | <.0001 | RHMin (Lag 6) | 0.0173 | 0.047 | ||
SARIMAX(0,1,0)(1,0,0) with Pmax | 0.5370 | 247.390 | 0.5101 | 0.41313 | <.0001 | Pmax (Lag 0) | −0.016 | 0.043 | ||
Pmax (Lag 6) | −0.0126 | 0.106 | ||||||||
ARIMAX(1,0,0) with LST and RHMax | 0.5753 | 277.840 | 0.5522 | 0.90303 | <.0001 | LST (Lag 3) | −0.073 | <.0001 | ||
RHMax (Lag 3) | −0.013 | 0.004 | ||||||||
SARIMAX(1,0,0)(0,1,0) with LST and RHMin | 0.6048 | 195.727 | 0.6137 | 0.91289 | <.0001 | LST (Lag 3) | −0.0413 | 0.004 | ||
RHMin (Lag 6) | 0.0197 | 0.023 |
Abbreviations: Tmean = mean air temperature; RHMax = Maximum Relative Humidity; RHMin = Minimum Relative Humidity. See Table 1 for other abbreviations.