. 2008 Feb;45(1):115–128. doi: 10.1353/dem.2008.0008

Table 2.

Probabilities of a Health Status Decline by Estimation Method, Age and Sex: Non-Hispanic White Persons, 1999–2000

Age	Transition Probabilities						Concurrent – Retrospective
	Excellent/Very Good to Good		Good to Fair/Poor		Excellent/Very Good to Fair/Poor		Excellent/Very Good to Good	Good to Fair/Poor	Excellent Very Good to Fair/Poor
	Concurrent	Retrospective	Concurrent	Retrospective	Concurrent	Retrospective	Excellent/Very Good to Good	Good to Fair/Poor	Excellent Very Good to Fair/Poor
Male
70	0.193 (0.013)	0.166 (0.012)	0.180 (0.014)	0.207 (0.015)	0.034 (0.004)	0.036 (0.006)	0.027^*	–0.027^*	0.002
75	0.210 (0.011)	0.188 (0.010)	0.205 (0.010)	0.237 (0.011)	0.046 (0.005)	0.042 (0.005)	0.021^*	–0.031^*	0.004
80	0.225 (0.012)	0.211 (0.011)	0.232 (0.012)	0.268 (0.013)	0.061 (0.007)	0.048 (0.006)	0.014^*	–0.036^*	0.013^*
85	0.235 (0.014)	0.232 (0.014)	0.256 (0.015)	0.298 (0.016)	0.079 (0.009)	0.054 (0.007)	0.003	–0.042^*	0.025^*
90	0.236 (0.018)	0.247 (0.019)	0.277 (0.022)	0.324 (0.023)	0.099 (0.014)	0.059 (0.010)	–0.011	–0.047^*	0.039^*
Female
70	0.216 (0.014)	0.180 (0.012)	0.172 (0.014)	0.212 (0.015)	0.036 (0.005)	0.035 (0.012)	0.036^*	–0.040^*	0.000
75	0.235 (0.010)	0.205 (0.010)	0.198 (0.010)	0.243 (0.011)	0.048 (0.005)	0.041 (0.012)	0.031^*	–0.045^*	0.007
80	0.253 (0.009)	0.230 (0.009)	0.225 (0.009)	0.276 (0.009)	0.064 (0.005)	0.047 (0.012)	0.023^*	–0.051^*	0.016^*
85	0.267 (0.011)	0.256 (0.011)	0.251 (0.012)	0.308 (0.012)	0.083 (0.005)	0.054 (0.012)	0.012^*	–0.057^*	0.029^*
90	0.275 (0.017)	0.280 (0.017)	0.275 (0.017)	0.338 (0.018)	0.106 (0.011)	0.061 (0.012)	–0.005	–0.063^*	0.045

Notes: Sample persons entered the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey in 1998 and 1999 and were interviewed in 1999, 2000, and 2001. Retrospective = estimates based on data that included retrospective health information. Concurrent = estimates based on data with concurrent health information only.

p < .05