. 2008 Feb;45(1):209–222. doi: 10.1353/dem.2008.0000

Table 2.

Factors Influencing Union Dissolution: Relative Risks for Categorical Variables and Parameter Estimates for Continuous Variables

Variable	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3
Constant (baseline)	−6.593^**	−6.544^**	−6.523^**
Place of Residence, Migration and Mobility
Current residence
Urban area	1	––	––
Rural area	0.63^**	––	––
Migrant status
Nonmigrants in urban areas	––	1	1
Nonmigrants in rural areas	––	0.61^**	0.61^**
Rural-to-rural migrants	––	0.87	0.82
Rural-to-urban migrants	––	0.76	0.72
Urban-to-rural migrants	––	0.56^**	0.53^**
Urban-to-urban migrants	––	1.32	1.26
Migrations
No migrations	1	––	––
One migration	1.03	––	––
Frequency of migrations
One migration	1	1	1
Two or more migrations	2.53^**	2.44^**	2.34^**
Residential moves
No moves	1	1	1
One move	0.75^**	0.75^**	0.72^*
Frequency of residential moves
One move	1	1	1
Two or more moves	1.76^**	1.76^**	1.67^**
Other Variables
Union duration (baseline)^a
0–1 years (slope)	1.948^**	1.944^**	1.948^**
1–5 years (slope)	0.179^**	0.178^**	0.184^**
5–10 years (slope)	0.072^†	0.074^†	0.077^*
10+ years (slope)	0.008	0.009	0.010
Age
15–19 years (slope)	−0.231^*	−0.233^*	−0.231^*
20–24 years (slope)	−0.065^†	−0.065^†	−0.065^†
25–29 years (slope)	−0.158^**	−0.159^**	−0.160^**
30–34 years (slope)	−0.109^**	−0.110^**	−0.111^**
35+ years (slope)	−0.053^*	−0.053^*	−0.054^*
Year
1969 and earlier (slope)	0.079	0.078	0.076
1970–79 (slope)	0.045^†	0.047^*	0.046^*
1980–89 (slope)	0.034^*	0.034^*	0.035^*
1990+ (slope)	0.059^*	0.058^*	0.059^*
Partnership status
Cohabiting	1	1	1
Married without prior cohabitation	0.50^**	0.51^**	0.51^**
Married after cohabitation	0.52^**	0.52^**	0.52^**
Cohabitation duration for married cohabitants
Duration in years (slope)	−0.096^*	−0.095^*	−0.095^*
Union order
First union	1	1	1
Second or subsequent union	1.44^†	1.46^*	1.46^*
Time since first/last conception^a,^b
0–0.75 years (slope)	−1.181^**	−1.186^**	−1.186^**
0.75–2.75 years (slope)	0.581^**	0.580^**	0.581^**
2.75+ years (slope)	0.010	0.009	0.009
Number of own children
One child	1	1	1
Two or more children	0.66^**	0.66^**	0.65^**
Number of stepchildren
No stepchildren	1	1	1
One or more stepchildren	1.16	1.17	1.17
Educational level
Basic	1	1	1
Secondary	0.73^†	0.72^†	0.72^†
Higher	0.55^*	0.55^*	0.56^*
Educational enrollment
Not enrolled	1	1	1
Enrolled	1.14	1.12	1.11
Religious^c
No	1	1	1
Yes	0.76^**	0.76^**	0.76^**
Parental divorce
No	1	1	1
Yes	1.56^**	1.54^**	1.54^**
Comparative education
No difference	1	1	1
Man better educated	0.98	0.98	0.97
Woman better educated	2.53^**	2.51^**	2.51^**
Employment status
Not employed	1	1	1
Employed	1.49^**	1.49^**	1.48^**
Employment status (at start of union)
Man employed, woman employed	1	1	1
Man employed, woman not employed	1.04	1.04	1.04
Man not employed, woman employed	0.96	0.96	0.95
Man not employed, woman not employed	1.54^*	1.54^*	1.54^*
Relative ages of partners
No difference	1	1	1
Man younger	1.37^*	1.36^*	1.36^*
Man older	0.87	0.87	0.87
Woman’s attitudes
Liberal (slope)^d	0.335^**	0.335^**	0.334^**
Standard deviation of residuals
Union dissolution	0.476^*	0.459^*	0.463^*
Migration and residential mobility	––	––	0.564^**
Correlation between the residuals
Dissolution and spatial mobility	––	––	0.186
Log-likelihood	−5,585.1	−5,582.3	−22,926.0
Sum of log-likelihoods^e	−22,929.0	−22,926.2	−22,926.0

For linear splines, we present slope estimates, which show how the hazard increases or decreases over a certain period. For example, during pregnancy (see “Time since first/last conception”), the log-risk of dissolution decreases by −1.186 per year (Model 2), reaching a level of −0.89 (0.75 × (−1.186)) by the time of birth. In relative terms, the risk is then 59% lower than prior to conception (exp(−0.89). The log-hazard of union dissolution increases 0.58 per year during the first two years of the child’s life, reaching a level of 0.27 (−0.89 + (0.58 × (2.75 – 0.75))) when the child is 2, which is a 31% higher risk than prior to conception (exp(0.27)).

The reference category for the first conception is parity zero.

Women were asked whether they were religious or not. Those women who answered “certainly yes” or “rather yes” were defined as religious.

Women with liberal gender attitudes were identified based on how much they agreed with five statements (five categories of response): (1) Unmarried couples should have the same rights and responsibilities as married couples; (2) If a woman wants to have a child as a single parent and she does not want to have a stable relationship with a man, it should be accepted by society; (3) Partners of the same sex should also have the possibility to marry; (4) Divorces of married couples with children should be made more difficult; (5) The division of household tasks is a sufficient reason for splitting up. The variable is continuous in which a maximum score of 5 indicates women with the most liberal views, and a score of 0 indicates women with the most traditional views.

The sum of log-likelihoods relates to the union dissolution and spatial mobility equations estimated separately (Models 1 and 2) or simultaneously (Model 3). Because our research focus is on union dissolution, we report only the sum of log-likelihoods, and not the parameter estimates for the spatial mobility equations.

^†

p ≤ .10;

p ≤ .05;

^**

p ≤ .01