Table 2.

The predictive capacity of genetic profiling under different scenarios defined by the number of genes involved, the odds ratio associated with the high risk allele (OR) and the population frequency of the risk allele. The proportion of subjects in the population who have an event is 10%. Subjects with risks exceeding 20% are classified as high risk. R²: R-squared; AUC: area under the ROC curve; TPR: true positive rate; FPR: false positive rate.

(a) risk allele frequency 5%
	Number of genes	Total at high risk	Cases at high risk (TPR)	Controls at high risk (FPR)	Expected Net Benefit	Net reclassification index	R2	AUC
OR=1.05	50	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.533
	150	0	0	0	0	0	0.003	0.550
	250	0	0.001	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.568
	350	0.002	0.004	0.002	0	0.002	0.007	0.574
OR=1.10	50	0	0.001	0	0	0	0.004	0.560
	150	0.009	0.024	0.008	0.001	0.016	0.013	0.602
	250	0.030	0.073	0.026	0.002	0.047	0.021	0.629
	350	0.054	0.127	0.045	0.003	0.082	0.029	0.648
OR=1.25	50	0.028	0.075	0.023	0.002	0.052	0.026	0.639
	150	0.119	0.327	0.097	0.011	0.230	0.075	0.723
	250	0.131	0.407	0.100	0.018	0.307	0.116	0.768
	350	0.132	0.459	0.096	0.024	0.363	0.157	0.801
OR=1.50	50	0.128	0.371	0.101	0.014	0.271	0.089	0.738
	150	0.175	0.612	0.127	0.033	0.485	0.217	0.842
	250	0.131	0.603	0.077	0.043	0.526	0.302	0.885
	350	0.170	0.736	0.107	0.050	0.629	0.364	0.908

(b) risk allele frequency 10%
	Number of genes	Total at high risk	Cases at high risk (TPR)	Controls at high risk (FPR)	Expected Net Benefit	Net reclassification index	R2	AUC
OR=1.05	50	0	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.541
	150	0.001	0.002	0.001	0	0.001	0.006	0.568
	250	0.006	0.014	0.005	0	0.009	0.010	0.588
	350	0.016	0.032	0.014	0	0.018	0.013	0.602
OR=1.10	50	0.005	0.010	0.004	0	0.005	0.008	0.582
	150	0.038	0.090	0.032	0.002	0.058	0.024	0.634
	250	0.061	0.160	0.050	0.005	0.110	0.039	0.667
	350	0.096	0.250	0.078	0.007	0.172	0.054	0.694
OR=1.25	50	0.074	0.195	0.060	0.006	0.136	0.047	0.684
	150	0.144	0.454	0.110	0.021	0.344	0.130	0.781
	250	0.133	0.503	0.091	0.030	0.411	0.197	0.829
	350	0.144	0.590	0.095	0.038	0.496	0.253	0.862
OR=1.50	50	0.125	0.437	0.090	0.024	0.348	0.150	0.796
	150	0.144	0.662	0.087	0.047	0.575	0.328	0.897
	250	0.166	0.777	0.098	0.056	0.679	0.420	0.929
	350	0.144	0.792	0.073	0.063	0.719	0.490	0.948

(c) risk allele frequency 30%
	Number of genes	Total at high risk	Cases at high risk (TPR)	Controls at high risk (FPR)	Expected Net Benefit	Net reclassification index	R2	AUC
OR=1.05	50	0	0	0	0	0	0.005	0.563
	150	0.015	0.033	0.013	0	0.021	0.014	0.607
	250	0.037	0.087	0.031	0.002	0.056	0.024	0.639
	350	0.054	0.130	0.046	0.003	0.084	0.032	0.655
OR=1.10	50	0.021	0.048	0.018	0.001	0.030	0.018	0.620
	150	0.094	0.247	0.077	0.007	0.170	0.055	0.700
	250	0.111	0.329	0.086	0.014	0.244	0.089	0.744
	350	0.132	0.417	0.101	0.019	0.316	0.121	0.777
OR=1.25	50	0.116	0.358	0.088	0.016	0.269	0.100	0.756
	150	0.142	0.578	0.094	0.037	0.484	0.246	0.862
	250	0.152	0.685	0.092	0.048	0.593	0.340	0.904
	350	0.151	0.738	0.085	0.055	0.652	0.407	0.926
OR=1.50	50	0.163	0.646	0.108	0.040	0.538	0.268	0.874
	150	0.142	0.779	0.071	0.062	0.708	0.480	0.947
	250	0.152	0.867	0.073	0.070	0.794	0.576	0.967
	350	0.132	0.863	0.051	0.075	0.812	0.631	0.976