Table 3.

Validation of Logistic Models Predicting High (Upper 10%) Expenditures in Year 2, MEPS Panels 5–8

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6	Model 7	Model 8	Model 9	Model 10
Correlation	0.347	0.446	0.454	0.423	0.405	0.473	0.454	0.466	0.480	0.464
c-statistic	0.791	0.835	0.849	0.824	0.816	0.854	0.837	0.852	0.857	0.842
Sensitivity (p>.1)	0.72	0.75	0.76	0.74	0.74	0.78	0.76	0.77	0.78	0.76
Positive predictive value	0.22	0.26	0.29	0.26	0.24	0.29	0.26	0.29	0.29	0.26
BIC	−5,813	−8,748	−9,702	−7,911	−7,296	−10,051	−9,895	−8,884	−10,187	−9,119

Model 1 (baseline): age, gender, insurance, panel.

Model 2: Model 1+number of chronic conditions.

Model 3: Model 1+DCG categories.

Model 4: Model 1+key condition indicators.

Model 5: Model 1+perceived health and functioning.

Model 6: Model 1+number of chronic conditions+DCG categories.

Model 7: Model 1+number of chronic conditions+key condition indicators.

Model 8: Model 1+DCG categories+key condition indicators.

Model 9: Model 1+number of chronic conditions+DCG categories+perceived health and functioning.

Model 10: Model 1+number of chronic conditions+key condition indicators+perceived health and functioning.

BIC, Bayesian information criterion; DCG, diagnostic cost group; MEPS, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.