Table 3.
The median values of the duration of the epidemic, the number of detected, not detected (before end screening), pre-emptively culled and vaccinated farms per epidemic and the effective reproduction number between herds (R h) for second-generation herds (i.e. the number of herds that were infected by herds that were infectious at the time the epidemic was first detected) for different control strategies (the two-sided 90% interval is given in parentheses).
| control strategy | duration (days) | no. of detected farms | no. of not detected farms | no. of pre-emptively culled farms | no. of vaccinated farms | R h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| minimala | 118 (39–597) | 25 (10–356) | 0 (0–3) | — | — | 0.54 (0.07–1.76) |
| 1 km culling | 92 (39–236) | 18 (10–47) | 0 (0–1) | 74 (32–245) | — | 0.49 (0.08–1.22) |
| 1 km vaccination | 111 (42–276) | 22 (10–69) | 1 (0–9) | 10 (2–28) | 70 (22–300) | 0.53 (0.09–1.30) |
| 2 km vaccination | 95 (41–203) | 19 (10–43) | 2 (0–8) | 10 (2–28) | 168 (60–457) | 0.46 (0.08–1.08) |
| 5 km vaccination | 71 (38–145) | 15 (9–26) | 2 (0–8) | 10 (2–28) | 478 (197–924) | 0.35 (0.05–0.84) |
a
The minimal control strategy comprises culling of infected herds, contact tracing and implementation of restriction zones and transport regulations (according to EU Council Directive 2001/89/EC).