Table 3.

MNLM Effects of Cumulative Risk and Promotive Scales at T1 on Being a Non-, Minor, or Serious Delinquent at T2: Marginal Effects (and S.E.), N = 2,085

	Step 1			Step 2			Step 3
	Non delinquents	Minor delinquents	Serious delinquents	Non delinquents	Minor delinquents	Serious delinquents	Non delinquents	Minor delinquents	Serious delinquents
Intercept	21.7	70.5	7.8	21.4	71.0	7.6	19.6	73.8	6.4
Controls
Gender (1= male)	−7.3 (1.9)**	0.6 (2.1)	6.7 (1.2)**	−6.4 (1.9)**	0.3 (2.1)	6.1 (1.2)**	−2.3 (1.9)	−0.4 (2.0)	2.7 (1.1)*
SES high	3.3 (2.3)	−1.5 (2.5)	−1.8 (1.4)	3.2 (2.3)	−1.7 (2.5)	−1.4 (1.4)	3.7 (2.3)	−2.1 (2.4)	−1.6 (1.2)
SES low	−2.1 (2.3)	−2.3 (2.5)	4.4 (1.6)**	−2.8 (2.3)	−1.6 (2.5)	4.4 (1.5)**	−2.7 (2.2)	−0.4 (2.4)	3.1 (1.4)
Cumulative risk
Temperament	−2.1 (1.4)	−0.6 (1.4)	2.7 (0.7)**	−0.8 (1.4)	−1.3 (1.4)	2.2 (0.7)**	−0.4 (1.4)	−1.3 (1.4)	1.6 (0.6)*
Family	−5.0 (1.4)**	4.2 (1.4)**	0.8 (0.7)	−3.3 (1.5)*	2.9 (1.5)	0.4 (0.8)	−2.0 (1.4)	2.4 (1.5)	−0.4 (0.7)
School	−2.8 (1.6)	0.6 (1.7)	2.2 (0.8)**	−2.3 (1.6)	0.6 (1.7)	1.7 (0.8)*	−0.7 (1.6)	0.5 (1.7)	0.2 (0.8)
Cumulative promotive
Temperament				5.2 (1.3)**	−3.1 (1.5)*	−2.1 (0.9)*	4.2 (1.2)**	−2.7 (1.4)	−1.6 (0.8)*
Family				3.1 (0.9)**	−2.1 (1.1)*	−1.0 (0.7)	1.9 (0.9)*	−1.2 (1.0)	−0.7 (0.6)
School				−2.4 (2.3)	4.0 (2.6)	−1.6 (1.7)	−2.2 (2.2)	3.8 (2.5)	−1.6 (1.4)
Delinquency T1
Non-delinquent							22.3 (2.4)**	−16.8 (2.6)**	−5.5 (1.1)**
Serious delinquent							−13.6 (2.8)**	−6.2 (4.0)	19.8 (3.4)**
Pseudo R 2	8.9%			11.5%			23.1%
∆χ2 (df)	∆χ2(16) = 61.56**			∆χ2(16) = 47.34**			∆χ2(4) = 227.98**

The reference categories for previous delinquency is the group of minor delinquents and for SES the group of middle SES

*p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001 (two-tailed)