Table 1.
Land-use and land-use change (relative to 2003) according to different modeled scenarios for Brazil in 2020
| Soybean |
Sugarcane |
Other crops |
Rangeland |
Forest |
Other natural |
Livestock density |
|
| Scenario | x1,000 km2 (Δ03–20, %) | x1,000 km2 (Δ03–20, %) | x1,000 km2 (Δ03–20, %) | x1,000 km2 (Δ03–20, %) | x1,000 km2 (Δ03–20, %) | x1,000 km2 (Δ03–20, %) | head/ha (Δ03–20, %) |
| 2003 | 191 (—) | 55 (—) | 389 (—) | 2,133 (—) | 4,194 (—) | 1,496 (—) | 0.70 (—) |
| 2020 biofuel targets | 285 (+49.3) | 90 (+63.6) | 397 (+2.1) | 2,972 (+44.3) | 3,546 (−15.4) | 1,222 (−21.6) | 0.79 (+12.3) |
| 2020 no biofuel expansion | 178 (−6.9) | 33 (−39.9) | 398 (+2.4) | 2,968 (+44.1) | 3,668 (−12.5) | 1,268 (−18.7) | 0.79 (+12.5) |
| 2020 ethanol targets only | 178 (−6.8) | 90 (+62.8) | 398 (+2.4) | 2,973 (+44.3) | 3,618 (−13.7) | 1,255 (−19.5) | 0.79 (+12.3) |
| 2020 biodiesel targets only | 285 (+49.5) | 33 (−39.7) | 396 (+2.0) | 2,968 (+44.1) | 3,598 (−14.2) | 1,232 (−21.0) | 0.79 (+12.5) |
| 2020 biofuel targets no ILUC | 285 (+49.3) | 90 (+63.6) | 397 (+2.1) | 2,807 (+36.2) | 3,668 (−12.5) | 1,268 (−18.7) | 0.83 (+18.9) |
ha, hectare (equivalent to 1 hm2).