Table 2.
Hazard Ratios for Incidence of Total Coronary Heart Disease Events (n = 351 Events) in Older Adults During a Median Follow-up Period of 8.2 Years (Maximum, 10.2 Years), According to Measures of Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease (n = 2,191), Health, Aging and Body Composition Study, 1997–2007
| Measure of Subclinical CVD and Category | Range of Values (Median) | Incidence Rate/1,000 Person-Years | No. of Events | Age-Adjusted HR | 95% CI | HR Adjusted for Traditional CVD Risk Factorsa | 95% CI | Multivariate-Adjusted HRb | 95% CI | |
| Interleukin-6, pg/mL | ||||||||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.21–1.18 (0.94) | 15.40 | 66 | 1 | Referent | 1 | Referent | 1 | Referent | |
| Quartile 2 | 1.19–1.75 (1.46) | 17.48 | 73 | 1.10 | 0.79, 1.53 | 1.00 | 0.71, 1.40 | 0.99 | 0.71, 1.41 | |
| Quartile 3 | 1.76–2.64 (2.12) | 22.62 | 91 | 1.57 | 1.14, 2.16 | 1.38 | 1.00, 1.90 | 1.32 | 0.95, 1.83 | |
| Quartile 4 | 2.65–15.96 (3.74) | 29.18 | 108 | 2.10 | 1.54, 2.85 | 1.82 | 1.33, 2.49 | 1.72 | 1.24, 2.39 | |
| P for trendc | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||||||
| C-reactive protein, mg/L | ||||||||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.15–1.00 (0.78) | 19.35 | 84 | 1 | Referent | 1 | Referent | 1 | Referent | |
| Quartile 2 | 1.01–1.64 (1.26) | 21.81 | 91 | 1.15 | 0.86, 1.55 | 1.18 | 0.87, 1.59 | 1.12 | 0.82, 1.52 | |
| Quartile 3 | 1.65–3.07 (2.25) | 20.92 | 89 | 1.14 | 0.84, 1.53 | 1.13 | 0.84, 1.53 | 1.14 | 0.83, 1.54 | |
| Quartile 4 | 3.08–85.18 (4.70) | 21.60 | 87 | 1.23 | 0.91, 1.66 | 1.29 | 0.95, 1.76 | 1.28 | 0.92, 1.78 | |
| P for trend | 0.26 | 0.21 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||||||
| C-reactive protein, mg/L | ||||||||||
| Category 1 | <1.0 | 19.21 | 82 | 1 | Referent | 1 | Referent | 1 | Referent | |
| Category 2 | 1–3.0 | 21.46 | 179 | 1.18 | 0.91, 1.53 | 1.17 | 0.90, 1.52 | 1.15 | 0.88, 1.51 | |
| Category 3 | >3.0 | 21.48 | 90 | 1.24 | 0.92, 1.68 | 1.31 | 0.96, 1.78 | 1.31 | 0.95, 1.82 | |
| P for trend | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0.11 | ||||||
| Tumor necrosis factor-α, pg/mL | ||||||||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.57–2.37 (1.93) | 17.42 | 71 | 1 | Referent | 1 | Referent | 1 | Referent | |
| Quartile 2 | 2.38–3.08 (2.72) | 16.73 | 67 | 0.95 | 0.68, 1.32 | 0.91 | 0.65, 1.28 | 0.93 | 0.66, 1.31 | |
| Quartile 3 | 3.09–3.94 (3.45) | 19.88 | 80 | 1.08 | 0.78, 1.49 | 1.03 | 0.74, 1.42 | 1.02 | 0.72, 1.43 | |
| Quartile 4 | 3.95–29.55 (4.78) | 29.03 | 107 | 1.63 | 1.21, 2.21 | 1.45 | 1.06, 1.99 | 1.54 | 1.09, 2.16 | |
| P for trend | <0.001 | 0.001 | <0.02 | 0.01 | ||||||
| Ankle-arm index | ||||||||||
| Category 1 | ≤0.9 | 32.60 | 49 | 1.90 | 1.40, 2.59 | 1.57 | 1.14, 2.18 | 1.66 | 1.20, 2.29 | |
| Category 2 | 0.91–1.00 | 19.65 | 36 | 1.04 | 0.73, 1.48 | 1.05 | 0.73, 1.49 | 1.10 | 0.77, 1.58 | |
| Category 3 | 1.01–1.30 | 18.44 | 218 | 1 | Referent | 1 | Referent | 1 | Referent | |
| Category 4 | 1.31–1.40 | 22.26 | 14 | 1.35 | 0.79, 2.32 | 1.29 | 0.75, 2.23 | 1.02 | 0.58, 1.77 | |
| Category 5 | >1.4 | 43.08 | 9 | 3.34 | 1.71, 6.53 | 2.89 | 1.47, 5.68 | 2.60 | 1.32, 5.14 | |
| P for quadratic patternd | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||||||
| Aortic pulse wave velocity, cm/second | ||||||||||
| Quartile 1 | 312–635 (546) | 17.03 | 63 | 1 | Referent | 1 | Referent | 1 | Referent | |
| Quartile 2 | 636–795 (711) | 19.06 | 67 | 1.45 | 1.02, 2.05 | 1.35 | 0.95, 1.93 | 1.34 | 0.93, 1.93 | |
| Quartile 3 | 796–1,042 (893) | 21.13 | 72 | 1.73 | 1.22, 2.44 | 1.57 | 1.10, 2.23 | 1.47 | 1.01, 2.13 | |
| Quartile 4 | 1,045–2,916 (1,313) | 23.00 | 77 | 1.96 | 1.39, 2.76 | 1.74 | 1.22, 2.49 | 1.68 | 1.16, 2.44 | |
| P for trend | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.002 | 0.006 | ||||||
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; CVD, cardiovascular disease; HR, hazard ratio.
Adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors, including age, gender, total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking, and diabetes.
Further adjusted for race, education, site, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, creatinine (as natural logarithm), alcohol consumption, physical activity, statins, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, and estrogen use.
Linear and quadratic trends were assessed using orthogonal contrasts.
Because of the U-shaped relation, the middle category (category 3, 1.01–1.30) was used as the reference group, and categories were compared with an orthogonal linear contrast to test for a quadratic pattern.