Table 4.
Expected and observed probability of death or unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge, by LACE score
| LACE score | Expected probability, % | Observed probability, % (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derivation group n = 2393 | Validation group n = 2419 | ||
| 0 | 2.0 | 0.0 (0.0–61.5) | 0.0 (0.0–46.1) |
| 1 | 2.5 | 1.4 (0.2–5.1) | 3.0 (0.8–7.6) |
| 2 | 3.0 | 2.6 (0.5–7.5) | 2.7 (0.5–7.8) |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.6 (2.2–11.4) | 2.5 (0.5–7.2) |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.9 (2.0–6.9) | 2.3 (0.9–4.8) |
| 5 | 5.1 | 4.4 (2.2–7.9) | 6.7 (3.9–10.8) |
| 6 | 6.1 | 4.7 (2.3–8.7) | 4.5 (2.0–8.5) |
| 7 | 7.3 | 7.6 (4.9–11.4) | 8.5 (5.8–12.0) |
| 8 | 8.7 | 6.3 (3.8–9.8) | 8.0 (4.9–12.2) |
| 9 | 10.3 | 11.7 (6.8–18.8) | 8.7 (5.0–14.2) |
| 10 | 12.2 | 14.5 (9.4–21.3) | 13.6 (8.7–20.2) |
| 11 | 14.4 | 18.6 (11.5–28.4) | 18.1 (10.9–28.3) |
| 12 | 17.0 | 20.8 (11.7–34.4) | 10.4 (4.5–20.5) |
| 13 | 19.8 | 17.3 (7.9–32.9) | 17.4 (7.5–34.3) |
| 14 | 23.0 | 28.6 (12.3–56.3) | 36.4 (15.7–71.7) |
| 15 | 26.6 | 8.3 (0.2–46.4) | 18.8 (3.9–54.8) |
| 16 | 30.4 | 50.0 (18.3–100) | 29.4 (9.6–68.6) |
| 17 | 34.6 | 33.3 (6.9–97.4) | 42.9 (8.8–100) |
| 18 | 39.1 | 100.0 (12.1–100) | – |
| 19 | 43.7 | 0.0 | – |