| Ferguson et al. [20] |
Estimate the human health risk from possible BSE infection in the GB sheep flock |
Deterministic age-structured SI model for within-flock spread Deterministic SIRS model for spread between flocks Deterministic model for transmission to human population |
Public health risk from ovine BSE are likely to be greater than from cattle Risk could be reduced through additional restrictions on sheep products entering the food chain Upper bound for vCJD cases increases to 150 000 when worst-case ovine BSE scenario included in predictions |
| Fryer et al. [25] |
Assess the impact of different control strategies to protect public health from exposure to BSE in sheep |
Age- and genotype-structured within-farm model used to estimate the exposure of humans to infectivity from BSE-infected sheep entering the food chain Assumes constant number (4) of BSE-affected flocks in GB |
If BSE were present in the GB national flock, the exposure to consumers from a single infected sheep would be high Annual exposure from four BSE-affected flocks could be considerable Small reductions in exposure can be achieved by strategies based on tissue testing, a 12-month age restriction or expanded definitions of high-risk tissues A 6-month age restriction is more effective Genotype-based restrictions are most effective |
| Kao et al. [51] |
Estimate the possible size of a BSE epidemic in British sheep |
|
Feed-borne epidemic peaked in 1990 with between 10 and 1 500 infected sheep In 2001, at most 20 clinical cases of BSE would be expected If horizontal transmission occurs, it could cause a large epidemic |
| Kao et al. [52] |
Assess the impact of ARR/ARR sheep being susceptible to BSE |
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Predictions for size of feed-borne epidemic not affected if ARR/ARR animals can become infected Selective breeding for ARR/ARR should control a BSE epidemic, but there are scenarios consistent with the data in which control fails |
