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. 2010 Mar 16;10:70. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-10-70

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Copyright ©2010 Vickers and Osgood; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Comparison of model calibrations to observed trends. Calibrated numbers of (A) cases from the models compared to reported numbers of cases in Saskatchewan. Parts (B) and (C) cross-check the model to the observed proportion positive among those tested (B), and the reported incidence (per 100,000 population) (C). Model-generated curves in parts (A), (B), and (C) were arbitrarily chosen from 50 million optimization simulations. Part (D) is a visual comparison of testing volume between 1983 and 2007 to the "actual" prevalence in Saskatchewan generated by the model.