Table 3.
Simulated outcomes for epidemics with different interventions
| R0 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | |||||||
| Intervention Policies | FAR | PDIR | RAV | FAR | PDIR | RAV | FAR | PDIR | RAV |
| No intervention | 27.9 | 82 | 0 | 32.5 | 121 | 0 | 37.2 | 159 | 0 |
| ISC | 23.5 | 53 | 0 | 29.3 | 74 | 0 | 34.1 | 100 | 0 |
| T | 21.1 | 54 | 10.4 | 26.6 | 84 | 13.3 | 32.2 | 120 | 16.0 |
| T+H | 12.6 | 24 | 18.4 | 18.7 | 41 | 25.2 | 23.4 | 62 | 30.3 |
| T+H+E | 9.0 | 15 | 30.6 | 13.0 | 22 | 40.2 | 19.9 | 39 | 45.8 |
| T + ISC | 16.9 | 32 | 8.5 | 23.8 | 53 | 11.5 | 27.9 | 77 | 14.1 |
| T + H + ISC | 10.1 | 14 | 14.2 | 14.8 | 23 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 41 | 26.9 |
| T + H + E + ISC | 7.1 | 10 | 25.0 | 10.9 | 17 | 35.3 | 15.5 | 30 | 44.8 |
Simulated Final Attack Rate % (FAR), Peak Daily Incidence Rate per 10,000 population (PDIR) and Required Anti Viral courses % (RAV) for epidemics with different interventions. Interventions abbreviations: T - antiviral treatment, H - household antiviral prophylaxis, E - extended prophylaxis, ISC - individual school closure (2 weeks duration, maximum of 2 closures per school).