Table 3.

Outcome in patients who consulted their general practitioner with a new episode of low back pain and were followed up by interview at three and 12 months. Values are numbers (percentages) of patients

Follow up period	Outcome*
	No pain and no disability	Pain or disability	Pain and disability
Main sample (n=218)
Initial interview (n=212†)	5 (2)	53 (25)	154 (73)
3 month interview (n=188†)	39 (21)	55 (29)	94 (50)
12 month interview (n=170†)	42 (25)	43 (25)	85 (50)
Validation sample (n=44)
Initial interview (n=43†)	3 (7)	11 (26)	29 (67)
3 month interview (n=36†)	12 (33)	6 (17)	18 (50)
12 month interview (n=31†)	11 (35)	6 (19)	14 (45)

^*No pain and no disability: visual analogue score for pain=0 or 1, Hanover disability score >90%. Pain or disability: either pain score=2-10 or disability score <90%, not both. Pain and disability: pain score=2-10 and disability score <90%.  

^†Data missing for some subjects interviewed.