TABLE 2.

Percentage Changes From Initial Value in Selected Outcomes in Model Simulating the US Health System at Year 5 and Year 25, by Scenario

	Coverage + Quality, % Change	Coverage + Quality + Capacity, % Change	Coverage + Quality + Capacity + Reimbursement Cut, % Change	Coverage + Quality + Capacity + Protection, % Change	Capacity + Protection, % Change
Unhealthy days per capita per mo (initial = 5.26)
Year 5	−4.7	−6.4	−3.4a	–9.5b	−4.5
Year 25	−6.1	−11.1	−5.3a	–20.7b	−13.0
Deaths per 1000 persons per y (initial = 7.46)
Year 5	−9.7	−11.3	−5.4	–14.2b	−4.5a
Year 25	−11.8	−16.4	−8.2a	–25.5b	−13.1
Health inequityc (initial = 0.143)
Year 5	+2.3a	−7.1	+0.5	−14.2	–15.2b
Year 25	+6.9a	−20.6	+3.3a	–32.9b	−26.8
Health care costs per capita per y (initial = $5434)
Year 5	+4.9a	+3.5a	–8.5b	+1.3a	−3.4
Year 25	+5.8a	+2.6a	–8.3b	−4.6	−8.8
Disease and injury prevalence (initial = 0.378)
Year 5	−0.2a	−0.3	−0.4	–3.3b	−3.1
Year 25	−1.0a	−2.0	−1.7	–12.6b	−11.1
Effectively managed fraction of disease and injury (initial = 0.583)
Year 5	+14.8	+20.3	+10.0	+20.8b	+4.6a
Year 25	+17.2	+30.3b	+12.0	+30.2	+6.9a
Fraction of acute nonurgent visits to hospital versus physician office (initial = 0.143)
Year 5	+16.6a	−15.3	+0.6	−18.5	–31.5b
Year 25	+26.7a	−40.1	+6.2a	−41.0	–41.7b
Sufficiency of PCPs (initial = 0.905)
Year 5	−6.8a	+7.0	−0.1	+8.1	+10.5b
Year 25	−7.8a	+10.5b	−1.3a	+10.5b	+10.5b

Note. PCP = primary care provider. All scenarios computed according to baseline parameter settings.

^aWorst result among the 5 scenarios or an undesirable result.

^bBest result among the 5 scenarios.

^cHealth inequity is the fraction of unhealthy days in the overall population that is attributable to the disparity between the advantaged and disadvantaged subgroups.