Table 2.
Bayesian estimates of evolutionary parameters of the HIV-1 CRF12_BF and CRF38_BF epidemics.
| Subtype | Gene | Coalescent | Molecular clock | μ | Tmrca |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRF12_BF | pol | Bayesian Skyline | Strict | 2.4 × 10-3 (1.9 × 10-3-2.9 × 10-3) |
1982 (1976-1986) |
| Relaxed | 2.4 × 10-3 (1.8 × 10-3-3.1 × 10-3) |
1983 (1978-1988) |
|||
| Logistic growth | Strict | 2.4 × 10-3 (1.9 × 10-3-2.8 × 10-3) |
1982 (1978-1986) |
||
| Relaxed | 2.5 × 10-3 (1.9 × 10-3-3.0 × 10-3) |
1983 (1979-1987) |
|||
| CRF38_BF a | pol | Bayesian Skyline | Strict | 1.8 × 10-3 (1.5 × 10-3-2.2 × 10-3) |
1985 (1977-1989) |
| Relaxed | 1.9 × 10-3 (1.5 × 10-3-2.3 × 10-3) |
1986 (1981-1990) |
|||
| Logistic growth | Strict | 1.8 × 10-3 (1.5 × 10-3-2.1 × 10-3) |
1985 (1980-1989) |
||
| Relaxed | 1.8 × 10-3 (1.4 × 10-3-2.3 × 10-3) |
1986 (1981-1990) |
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Estimates of the mean evolutionary rate (μ, substitutions site-1 year-1) and median time of the most recent common ancestor (Tmrca, year) of the HIV-1 CRF12_BF and CRF38_BF epidemics (95% HPD intervals in parentheses). The results reported are the combined estimates of two independent runs. a Informative prior distribution of μ (1.5 × 10-3-2.5 × 10-3) for the CRF38_BF pol data set was selected from: Hué et al. [38], Salemi et al.[39], Bello et al.[40], and Passaes et al. [41].