Table 4.
Bayesian estimates of population dynamic parameters of the HIV-1 CRF12_BF and CRF38_BF epidemics.
| Subtype | Demographic model | Molecular Clock | Gene | r | λ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRF12_BF | Logistic growth | Strict | pol (PR-RT) | 1.08 (0.79-1.44) |
0.64 (0.48-0.88) |
| Relaxed | 1.22 (0.85-1.64) |
0.57 (0.42-0.81) |
|||
| CRF38_BF | Logistic growth | Strict | pol (PR-RT) | 0.83 (0.31-1.81) |
0.83 (0.38-2.24) |
| Relaxed | 0.92 (0.41-1.75) |
0.75 (0.40-1.69) |
|||
| CRF12_BFa | Logistic growth | Relaxed | vpu | 2.24 (0.21-4.56) |
0.31 (0.15-3.30) |
| Bb | Logistic growth | env (C2-V3) | 0.46 (0.33-0.59) |
1.51 (1.22-2.10) |
|
| Strict | |||||
| pol (PR-RT) | 0.56 (0.35-0.80) |
1.24 (0.87-1.98) |
|||
| Fb | Logistic growth | env (C2-V3) | 0.61 (0.40-0.86) |
1.14 (0.81-1.73) |
|
| Strict | |||||
| pol (PR-RT) | 0.59 (0.31-0.92) |
1.17 (0.75-2.24) |
|||
| Cc | Logistic growth | Strict | pol (RT) | 0.70 (0.41-1.00) |
0.99 (0.69-1.69) |
| Relaxed | 0.81 (0.40-1.26) |
0.86 (0.55-1.73) |
|||
| CRF31_BCc | Logistic growth | Strict | pol (RT) | 1.26 (0.61-2.10) |
0.55 (0.33-1.14) |
| Relaxed | 1.27 (0.44-2.26) |
0.55 (0.31-1.57) |
|||
Estimates of the median growth rate (r, yr-1) and epidemic doubling time (λ, yr) for the HIV-1 CRF12_BF and CRF38_BF epidemics (95% HPD in parentheses). Growth rate estimates were used to calculate the time taken for the epidemic to double in size (λ) using the relation λ = ln(2)/r. a Data from Aulicino et al. [26]. bData from Bello et al. [23]. c Data from Bello et al. [47].