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. 2003 Nov 29;327(7426):1267. doi: 10.1136/bmj.327.7426.1267

Table 3.

Ten year predicted versus observed rates of coronary heart disease mortality and all coronary events by region

Coronary heart disease deaths
Coronary heart disease events
Region Predicted rate (%) Observed rate (%) (95% CI) Predicated over observed Predicted rate (%) Observed rate (%) (95% CI) Predicted over observed
South of England (n=2086)
3.8
2.3 (1.7 to 3.1)
1.65
15.4
9.0 (7.8 to 10.3)
1.71
Midlands and Wales (n=942)
3.8
1.9 (1.2 to 3.1)
2.01
15.6
9.1 (7.4 to 11.2)
1.71
North of England (n=2783)
4.2
3.3 (2.7 to 4.1)
1.27
16.3
10.6 (9.5 to 11.8)
1.54
Scotland (n=832)
4.5
3.0 (2.0 to 4.5)
1.50
16.8
13.1 (10.9 to 15.6)
1.28
All (n=6643) 4.1 2.8 (2.4 to 3.2) 1.47 16.0 10.2 (9.5 to 10.9) 1.57
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