TABLE 8.
SIMULATED CHOICE PROBABILITIES: ALTERNATIVES TO THE BENCHMARK
| Partial retirement |
Full retirement |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | Age | % Income | Age | % Income | Probability |
| 1: Postponed retirement | - | 70 | 90 | 0.04 | |
| 2: Postponed retirement | - | 70 | 100 | 0.13 | |
| 3: Early retirement | 62 | 60 | 68.21 | ||
| 4: Early retirement | 62 | 50 | 11.32 | ||
| 5: Partial retirement | 63 | 85 | 67 | 70 | 66.34 |
| 6: Partial retirement | 63 | 100 | 67 | 70 | 77.79 |
| 7: Partial retirement | 63 | 85 | 67 | 80 | 91.3 |
| 8: Late partial retirement | 65 | 90 | 70 | 90 | 20.12 |
| 9: Late partial retirement | 65 | 100 | 70 | 100 | 47.16 |
| 10: Early partial retirement | 60 | 75 | 65 | 60 | 69.17 |
Source: Van Soest et al. (2006, Table 6)
Note: “Prob.” is the probability that the given scenario is preferred to the benchmark, which is full retirement at age 65 for a 70% net pension. Simulated probabilities assume no optimization error.