Table 6.
Predicted utilisation of general practitioners’ time (minutes per resident week) for people who would otherwise have been cared for in NHS establishments if they were resident in private sector nursing homes
| Decline in No (%) of NHS residents 1986-96 | Overall disability severity score | Sensitivity analysis
|
Main prediction*
|
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% of consultations in clinics | All visits to single patients | Minutes per week (SE) | No of additional general practitioners needed† | |||
| 35 842 (40) | ⩽18.30 | 4.88 | 8.68 | 6.18 (0.52) | 86 | |
| 44 803 (50) | ⩽19.05 | 5.18 | 9.36 | 6.61 (0.54) | 115 | |
| 53 764 (60) | ⩽19.05 | 5.18 | 9.36 | 6.61 (0.54) | 138 | |
| 62 724 (70) | ⩽19.55 | 5.26 | 9.54 | 6.72 (0.55) | 164 | |
| 71 685 (80) | ⩽19.90 | 5.28 | 9.57 | 6.74 (0.55) | 188 | |
| 80 645 (90) | ⩽20.10 | 5.43 | 9.90 | 6.95 (0.56) | 218 | |
| 89 606 (100) | — | 5.51 | 10.06 | 7.05 (0.56) | 245 | |
*
Average visit to home involves consultations with five residents. †Whole time equivalent general practitioners (42.93 hours per week).