TABLE 1.
Time-dependent infectivity model: estimated parameter valuesa
| Animal groupb | T0 (cells/μl) | β (10−8 ml/RNA/day) |
β0/β∞ | k (1/day) | δ (1/day) | d (1/day) | Th (days) | SSR | P (F-test) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β0 | β∞ | |||||||||
| Group 1 | ||||||||||
| 25479 | 119.5 (71.7-551.2) | 2.13 (0.33-3.99) | 0.17 (0.004-0.48) | 12.5 | 0.13 (0.03-0.62) | 0.17 (0.09-0.56) | 0.056 (0.021-0.297) | 5.3 | 0.029 | 0.0113 |
| 25948 | 20.4 (15.8-40.2) | 13.27 (6.59-16.37) | 1.41 (0.89-1.99) | 9.4 | 0.16 (0.09-0.24) | 0.56 (0.38-0.87) | 0.047 (0.017-0.081) | 4.3 | 0.031 | 0.0171 |
| 29459 | 106.1 (97.0-118.1) | 1.87 (1.66-2.57) | 0.86 (0.48-1.13) | 2.2 | 0.16 (0.09-0.45) | 0.34 (0.31-0.41) | 0.031 (0.025-0.051) | 4.3 | 0.002 | |
| 29271 | 100.5 (72.0-171.8) | 2.44 (1.23-4.03) | 0.17 (0.10-1.01) | 14.3 | 0.12 (0.05-0.23) | 0.27 (0.21-0.45) | 0.017 (0.002-0.066) | 5.8 | 0.005 | 0.0761 |
| 27361 | 36.4 (27.7-43.0) | 11.97 (10.59-14.77) | 0.68 (0.54-0.87) | 17.6 | 0.34 (0.27-0.44) | 0.45 (0.35-0.55) | 0.030 (0.019-0.079) | 2.0 | 0.019 | 0.0071 |
| 29029 | 64.7 (42.3-111.0) | 4.28 (2.57-6.58) | 0.43 (0.31-0.71) | 9.9 | 0.20 (0.19-0.23) | 0.41 (0.29-0.58) | 0.054 (0.031-0.073) | 3.5 | 0.0008 | <0.0001 |
| 26811 | 31.4 (10.8-129.1) | 8.15 (1.61-24.7) | 1.81 (0.51-4.09) | 4.5 | 0.72 (0.16-1.84) | 0.32 (0.15-0.87) | 0.014 (0.004-0.032) | 1.0 | 0.239 | 0.0439 |
| 25908 | 38.0 (26.5-57.9) | 5.22 (3.34-7.76) | 0.76 (0.42-1.03) | 6.9 | 0.07 (0.04-0.11) | 0.61 (0.58-0.68) | 0.047 (0.034-0.077) | 9.9 | 0.024 | 0.1279 |
| Mean | 64.6 | 6.17 | 0.79 | 9.7 | 0.24 | 0.39 | 0.037 | 4.5 | ||
| Median | 51.3 | 4.75 | 0.72 | 9.7 | 0.16 | 0.37 | 0.039 | 4.3 | ||
| Group 2 | ||||||||||
| 35036 | 79.8 (64.1-149.4) | 4.65 (2.62-6.50) | 0.94 (0.50-1.09) | 4.9 | 0.55 (0.35-1.24) | 0.26 (0.23-0.30) | 0.004 (0.003-0.006) | 1.3 | 0.116 | 0.0029 |
| 33815 | 38.9 (30.3-49.1) | 5.90 (3.43-6.75) | 2.40 (1.70-2.85) | 2.4 | 0.75 (0.10-0.89) | 0.20 (0.16-0.24) | 0.009 (0.006-0.012) | 0.9 | 0.033 | 0.0025 |
| 36068 | 25.7 (5.2-29.7) | 6.54 (1.48-18.55) | 3.84 (3.06-21.86) | 1.7 | 0.67 (0.20-1.11) | 0.28 (0.21-0.39) | 0.003 (0.001-0.005) | 1.0 | 0.0724 | >0.2 |
| Mean | 48.1 | 6.0 | 2.39 | 3.0 | 0.66 | 0.25 | 0.005 | 1.1 | ||
| Median | 38.9 | 5.9 | 2.40 | 2.4 | 0.67 | 0.26 | 0.004 | 1.0 | ||
| Group 3 | ||||||||||
| 34373 | 62.0 (31.4-156.2) | 2.10 (0.72-2.93) | 0.20 (0.10-23.8) | 10.5 | 0.05 (0.001-0.86) | 0.16 (0.06-0.72) | 0.018 (0.001-0.13) | 13.9 | 0.064 | |
| 33952 | 66.6 (57.0-78.1) | 2.00 (1.74-2.33) | 0.23 (0.06-0.31) | 8.7 | 0.03 (0.02-0.04) | 0.35 (0.32-0.40) | 0.019 (0.015-0.025) | 23.1 | 0.010 | 0.021 |
| 34846 | 31.2 (31.2-31.2) | 3.20 (3.20-3.20) | 1.16 (1.16-1.16) | 2.7 | 0.05 (0.05-0.05) | 0.34 | 0.020 | 13.9 | 0.025 | |
| Mean | 53.3 | 2.4 | 0.53 | 7.3 | 0.04 | 0.28 | 0.019 | 16.9 | ||
| Median | 62.0 | 2.1 | 0.23 | 8.7 | 0.05 | 0.34 | 0.018 | 13.9 | ||
| Overall mean | 58.7 (41.7-75.6) | 5.3 (3.34-7.18) | 1.08 (0.53-1.61) | 7.7 (5.1-10.3) | 0.29 (0.14-0.42) | 0.34 (0.27-0.40) | 0.026 (0.017-0.035) | 6.4 (3.0-9.8) | ||
| Overall median | 50.4 | 4.47 | 0.81 | 7.8 | 0.16 | 0.33 | 0.020 | 4.3 | ||
a
Estimated parameter values T0, β0, β∞, k, δ, d, time Th to reach the mid-value (β0 + β∞)/2, sum of squared residuals (SSR), and the P value of the F-test for the eight donor animals, three ramp-up plasma recipient animals, and three set-point plasma recipient animals. Numbers in parentheses indicate the 95% CI.
b
Group 1, donor animals, intravaginally infected; V0 = 1 RNA copy per 300 ml; group 2, ramp-up plasma recipient animals, i.v. infected; V0 = 20 RNA copies per 300 ml; group 3, set-point plasma recipient animals, i.v. infected; V0 = 1,500 RNA copies per 300 ml.