Table 3.
Predictive discrimination of models at different 5-year cardiovascular risk thresholds
5% | 10% | 20% | 30% | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Women | ||||
Sensitivity (95% CI) | ||||
Laboratory-based model | 76·8 (73·6–79·9) | 51·7 (48·0–55·4) | 18·3 (15·6–21·3) | 5·0 (3·5–6·9) |
Non-laboratory-based model | 76·4 (73·2–79·5) | 53·5 (49·8–57·2) | 17·6 (15·0–20·8) | 5·1 (3·6–7·0) |
Specificity (95% CI) | ||||
Laboratory-based model | 73·4 (71·7–75·1) | 88·3 (87·0–89·5) | 97·5 (96·8–98·0) | 99·5 (99·2–99·8) |
Non-laboratory-based model | 73·5 (71·8–75·2) | 88·4 (87·1–89·6) | 97·7 (97·1–98·3) | 99·5 (99·2–99·7) |
Positive predictive value (95% CI) | ||||
Laboratory-based model | 44·2 (41·4–47·0) | 54·8 (51·0–58·6) | 66·3 (59·3–72·9) | 75·0 (60·4–86·4) |
Non-laboratory-based model | 44·2 (41·4–47·0) | 55·9 (52·2–59·6) | 68·1 (60·9–74·7) | 74·0 (59·7–85·4) |
Negative predictive value (95% CI) | ||||
Laboratory-based model | 92·0 (90·8–93·2) | 87·0 (85·6–88·2) | 81·3 (80·0–82·7) | 80·4 (79·0–81·7) |
Non-laboratory-based model | 91·9 (90·7–93·0) | 87·4 (86·1–88·6) | 81·2 (79·8–82·6) | 80·4 (79·0–81·7) |
Men | ||||
Sensitivity (95% CI) | ||||
Laboratory-based model | 85·0 (82·4–87·3) | 60·4 (57·1–63·7) | 26·0 (23·0–29·1) | 8·9 (7·1–11·0) |
Non-laboratory-based model | 84·8 (82·4–87·1) | 60·2 (56·9–63·5) | 24·8 (21·9–27·8) | 8·8 (7·0–10·9) |
Specificity (95% CI) | ||||
Laboratory-based model | 57·8 (55·4–59·9) | 78·5 (76·6–80·3) | 93·7 (92·6–94·8) | 98·6 (98·0–99·1) |
Non-laboratory-based model | 56·7 (54·5–59·0) | 78·3 (76·4–80·1) | 93·7 (92·5–94·7) | 98·6 (98·0–99·1) |
Positive predictive value (95% CI) | ||||
Laboratory-based model | 47·1 (44·6–49·6) | 55·5 (52·2–58·9) | 64·9 (59·6–69·9) | 73·6 (64·1–81·7) |
Non-laboratory-based model | 46·5 (44·0–49·0) | 55·2 (52·0–58·4) | 63·5 (58·2–68·7) | 74·4 (64·5–82·1) |
Negative predictive value (95% CI) | ||||
Laboratory-based model | 89·6 (87·8–91·3) | 81·7 (79·9–83·4) | 74·1 (72·3–75·8) | 71·2 (69·5–72·9) |
Non-laboratory-based model | 89·3 (87·5–91·0) | 81·6 (79·8–83·3) | 73·7 (72·0–75·5) | 70·9 (69·2–72·6) |