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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2010 May 4.
Published in final edited form as: Lancet. 2008 Mar 15;371(9616):923–931. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)60418-3

Table 3.

Predictive discrimination of models at different 5-year cardiovascular risk thresholds

5% 10% 20% 30%
Women

Sensitivity (95% CI)
  Laboratory-based model 76·8 (73·6–79·9) 51·7 (48·0–55·4) 18·3 (15·6–21·3) 5·0 (3·5–6·9)
  Non-laboratory-based model 76·4 (73·2–79·5) 53·5 (49·8–57·2) 17·6 (15·0–20·8) 5·1 (3·6–7·0)
Specificity (95% CI)
  Laboratory-based model 73·4 (71·7–75·1) 88·3 (87·0–89·5) 97·5 (96·8–98·0) 99·5 (99·2–99·8)
  Non-laboratory-based model 73·5 (71·8–75·2) 88·4 (87·1–89·6) 97·7 (97·1–98·3) 99·5 (99·2–99·7)
Positive predictive value (95% CI)
  Laboratory-based model 44·2 (41·4–47·0) 54·8 (51·0–58·6) 66·3 (59·3–72·9) 75·0 (60·4–86·4)
  Non-laboratory-based model 44·2 (41·4–47·0) 55·9 (52·2–59·6) 68·1 (60·9–74·7) 74·0 (59·7–85·4)
Negative predictive value (95% CI)
  Laboratory-based model 92·0 (90·8–93·2) 87·0 (85·6–88·2) 81·3 (80·0–82·7) 80·4 (79·0–81·7)
  Non-laboratory-based model 91·9 (90·7–93·0) 87·4 (86·1–88·6) 81·2 (79·8–82·6) 80·4 (79·0–81·7)

Men

Sensitivity (95% CI)
  Laboratory-based model 85·0 (82·4–87·3) 60·4 (57·1–63·7) 26·0 (23·0–29·1) 8·9 (7·1–11·0)
  Non-laboratory-based model 84·8 (82·4–87·1) 60·2 (56·9–63·5) 24·8 (21·9–27·8) 8·8 (7·0–10·9)
Specificity (95% CI)
  Laboratory-based model 57·8 (55·4–59·9) 78·5 (76·6–80·3) 93·7 (92·6–94·8) 98·6 (98·0–99·1)
  Non-laboratory-based model 56·7 (54·5–59·0) 78·3 (76·4–80·1) 93·7 (92·5–94·7) 98·6 (98·0–99·1)
Positive predictive value (95% CI)
  Laboratory-based model 47·1 (44·6–49·6) 55·5 (52·2–58·9) 64·9 (59·6–69·9) 73·6 (64·1–81·7)
  Non-laboratory-based model 46·5 (44·0–49·0) 55·2 (52·0–58·4) 63·5 (58·2–68·7) 74·4 (64·5–82·1)
Negative predictive value (95% CI)
  Laboratory-based model 89·6 (87·8–91·3) 81·7 (79·9–83·4) 74·1 (72·3–75·8) 71·2 (69·5–72·9)
  Non-laboratory-based model 89·3 (87·5–91·0) 81·6 (79·8–83·3) 73·7 (72·0–75·5) 70·9 (69·2–72·6)
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