Table 2. True and estimated Pr(ytest ∈ Δ) and 90% CPI coverage.
ID | True | Highest joint posterior* |
|
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n = 200 | n = 30 | n = 200 | n = 30 | |||||||
Est.(SE) | Cvg. | Est.(SE) | Cvg. | Est.(SE) | Cvg. | Est.(SE) | Cvg. | |||
1 | 0.056 | 0.074 (0.026) | 0.85 | 0.137 (0.096) | 0.71 | 0.055 (0.023) | 0.88 | 0.079 (0.088) | 0.80 | |
2 | 0.311 | 0.284 (0.063) | 0.86 | 0.229 (0.134) | 0.76 | 0.278 (0.074) | 0.82 | 0.227 (0.200) | 0.67 | |
3 | 0.524 | 0.499 (0.122) | 0.86 | 0.402 (0.213) | 0.73 | 0.514 (0.139) | 0.82 | 0.481 (0.302) | 0.70 | |
4 | 0.757 | 0.744 (0.031) | 0.89 | 0.491 (0.140) | 0.48 | 0.754 (0.028) | 0.94 | 0.606 (0.212) | 0.77 | |
5 | 0.933 | 0.905 (0.039) | 0.90 | 0.645 (0.170) | 0.42 | 0.919 (0.033) | 0.95 | 0.819 (0.145) | 0.81 |
Select model with the highest joint posterior probability.
Select variables satisfying the criteria.