Table 6.
Simulation Results for More Complex Demographic Scenarios.
| Exponential Growth |
Instantaneous Pop Size Change |
|||||||
| Parameter | MLE | HPD90 | # Completea | # Trueb | MLE | HPD90 | # Completea | # Trueb |
| Current Nef, Sp. #1, ×106 (2 million) | 1.29 | 0.94–1.85 | 5 | 1 (4,0) | 1.92 | 1.45–2.54 | 5 | 5 |
| Current Nef, Sp. #2, ×106 (400,000) | 0.31 | 0.20–0.46 | 5 | 4 (1,0) | 0.35 | 0.24–0.51 | 5 | 4 (1,0) |
| Ancestral Nef, ×106 (1 million) | 1.05 | 0.27–9.37 | 4 | 4 (0,1) | 0.78 | 0.13–6.25 | 5 | 5 |
| Div. Time, ×106 (1 My) | 0.91 | 0.54–9.09 | 0 | 5 | 1.22 | 0.66–6.26 | 2 | 5 |
| Nefm, Sp. #2 → Sp. #1 (0.4) | 0.41 | 0.13–0.75 | 5 | 5 | 0.50 | 0.20–0.94 | 5 | 4 (0,1) |
| Nefm, Sp. #1 → Sp. #2 (0.02) | 0.02 | 0.00–0.12 | 5 | 5 | 0.03 | 0.00–0.13 | 5 | 5 |
Values listed for MLE and HPD90 interval are averages over five independent simulated data sets. Numbers in parentheses next to parameters are values used in simulations.
a
Number of runs for which the posterior probability distribution has zero density at the prior upper bound.
b
Numbers in parentheses are the number of simulated values that were significantly lower and higher than true value, respectively.