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. 2010 Jun 27;365(1548):1879–1890. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0060

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© 2010 The Royal Society

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Figure 4. — (a) Dynamics of the number of infected individuals, Y, and the transmission rate f_XY for a susceptible-infected-recovered model with seasonal forcing, given by equations (2.20)–(2.22) in the main text. Parameter values are as follows (with time in days): β₀ = 10/7, β₁ = 0.05, ω = 2π/365, γ = 1/7, μ = 1/25550. The population size, N, was assumed to be 10⁶. Initial conditions: S = 100029.946, I = 142.978, R = 899827.076. (b) The time of sampling for the high prevalence scenario was t = 3465, when I = 384.477 (38.4 per 100 000) (c) and the time of sampling for the low prevalence scenario was t = 3649, when I = 140.7068 (14.0 per 100000).