Table 5.

Comparison of mortality and person-years lost for data-derived and constrained models in development and validation cohorts

			All cause mortality			Breast specific mortality			Person-Years Lost
ECRIC Model:	Hormone coefficient	Chemotherapy coefficient	A	P	ROC	A	P	ROC	Total Possible PY‡	A	P
Full	Model	Model	1,075	1,082	0.81	737	768	0.84	35,003	3,099	3,341
Full	Overview*	Overview	1,075	984	0.81	737	660	0.83	35,003	3,099	3,030
Constrained	Model†	Model	1,075	980	0.81	737	656	0.83	35,003	3,099	3,061
Constrained	Overview	Overview	1,075	990	0.81	737	667	0.83	35,003	3,099	3,089
WMCIU Model:
Full	Model	Model	955	1,006	0.79	668	743	0.82	28,322	2,405	2,513
Full	Overview	Overview	955	956	0.79	668	690	0.81	28,322	2,405	2,376
Constrained	Model†	Model	955	952	0.78	668	685	0.81	28,322	2,405	2,406
Constrained	Overview	Overview	955	965	0.78	668	699	0.81	28,322	2,405	2,436

*Application of overview estimates is performed by setting the model-derived therapy coefficient to zero. Overview-derived therapy risk reductions (first generation) are then applied in the life table analysis. The risk reductions are only applied to individuals who actually received therapy. No Overview hormone therapy benefit was applied to individuals with ER- tumors.

^†Under the constrained model, the model coefficient for adjuvant hormone therapy is the same as the Overview estimate.

^‡Follow-up was censored at eight years