Figure 3.

Contour plots of $\widehat{\mathit{\text{ACE}}}$ for varying levels of the sensitivity parameters β₀, β₁, and ϕ under (1), (2), (3), and (6)–(8). ϕ is the probability of prostate cancer if randomized to placebo given prostate cancer in the finasteride arm. OR₀ (OR₁) is the odds ratio for prostate cancer in finasteride (placebo) based on cancer grade, given cancer in placebo (finasteride). The shaded regions represent those choices of β₀, β₁, and ϕ where H₀ : ACE = 0 is rejected at the 0.05-level. The darker (lighter) shades are where ACE > 0 (ACE < 0), implying a higher (lower) risk of high-grade prostate cancer on finasteride. The rectangles represent ranges of our sensitivity parameters selected by two subject matter experts. The × represent their most likely sensitivity parameter values.