Table 2.

ILLUM sensitivity analysis results

Parameter	Default Value	+ 50%a Perturbation	Guava Cover, Hectares	Guava Sensitivity	Farming Population	Population Sensitivity
Landscape Inputs
Guava Spread Rate (probability of spread to an adjacent cell)	10%	15%	2,396.5 (7.2)*	14.5%	24.2 (4.3)	N/A
Agent Inputs
Cost of Living (USD)	550	825	2,221.8 (-0.6)	N/A	21.9 (-5.5)	N/A
Cost of Switching to:	220	330	2,218.0 (-0.8)	N/A	25.1 (8.5)*	17.0%
Farming	570	855
Fishing	700	1,050
Tourism
Guava Control Cost (USD/hectare)	100	150	2,591.8 (16.0)*	31.9%	24.4 (5.4)	N/A
Mean Occupational Experience (years)	19	28.5	2,208.4 (-1.2)	N/A	23.7 (2.3)	N/A
Number of Park Rangers	14	21	1,926.1 (-13.8)*	27.6%	24.8 (7.0)+	14.0%
Savings Rate (% of net income)	5	7.5	2,219.6 (-0.7)	N/A	23.9 (3.2)	N/A

Guava cover and farming population values are means of 100 model runs with a 50% perturbation of the input variables, measured at time-step 50. Mean guava cover and population are compared to baseline model output using t-tests, and sensitivity values are reported for statistically significant differences. Percent changes from the baseline model are shown in parentheses

^*p< 0.05;

⁺p< 0.10 for the two-tailed distribution

^aResults of -50% perturbations are not shown for space considerations