Table 5.
The dynamics of poverty, migration and other household factors between 2001 and 2005
| Model 1 | Model 2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary least squares regression | Logistic regression | ||||
| Factor | Level | n | Precent (%) | Coefficient: SES absolute | Odds Ratio: less poor half |
| SES level at start | 0.45 (0.44, 0.47)*** | 14.02 (12.24, 16.06)*** | |||
| Male adult temporary migration in household at start of period | No male temporary migrants | 5,675 | 51 | Ref | Ref |
| 1 male temporary migrant | 3,945 | 36 | 0.04 (0.03, 0.05)*** | 1.25 (1.11, 1.41)*** | |
| >1 temporary migrant males | 1,507 | 13 | 0.03 (0.01, 0.05)*** | 1.34 (1.12, 1.6)*** | |
| Change in male adult temporary migration in household | No change | 5,911 | 53 | Ref | Ref |
| Increase | 3,753 | 34 | 0.01 (0, 0.03)* | 1.12 (1.01, 1.25)** | |
| Decrease | 1,463 | 13 | −0.04 (−0.06, −0.02)*** | 0.82 (0.69, 0.99)** | |
| Female adult temporary migration in household at start of period | No female temporary migrants | 8,265 | 74 | Ref | Ref |
| 1 female temporary migrant | 2,218 | 20 | 0.03 (0.02, 0.05)*** | 1.26 (1.05, 1.5)** | |
| >1 temporary migrant males | 644 | 6 | 0.03 (0, 0.07)† | 1.42 (1.07, 1.88)** | |
| Change in female adult temporary migration in household | No change | 6,785 | 59 | Ref | Ref |
| Increase | 1,835 | 16 | 0.03 (0.01, 0.04)*** | 1.12 (0.99, 1.27)** | |
| Decrease | 2,920 | 25 | −0.03 (−0.05, −0.01)*** | 0.74 (0.61, 0.89)*** | |
| Grants received by household at start of period | Nil | 9,513 | 81 | Ref | Ref |
| 1 grant received | 1,866 | 16 | −0.01 (−0.02, 0.01) | 0.85 (0.75, 0.97)** | |
| >1 grants received | 375 | 3 | 0 (−0.03, 0.03) | 0.78 (0.58, 1.07) | |
| Change in number of grants received over the period | No change | 5,164 | 44 | Ref | Ref |
| Increase | 6,258 | 53 | 0.04 (0.03, 0.05)*** | 1.11 (1.02, 1.21)** | |
| Decrease | 332 | 3 | −0.03 (−0.06, 0.01) | 0.79 (0.57, 1.08) | |
| Household members employed locally at start of period | Nil | 7,438 | 63 | Ref | Ref |
| 1 locally employed | 3,117 | 27 | 0.05 (0.03, 0.07)*** | 1.34 (1.17, 1.53)*** | |
| >1 locally employed | 1,199 | 10 | 0.08 (0.05, 0.1)*** | 1.72 (1.33, 2.21)*** | |
| Change in number of household members locally employed | No change | 6,494 | 55 | Ref | Ref |
| Increase | 2,867 | 25 | 0.03 (0.01, 0.04)*** | 1.25 (1.08, 1.45)*** | |
| Decrease | 2,393 | 20 | −0.05 (−0.07, −0.03)*** | 0.76 (0.65, 0.89)*** | |
| Household size at start of period | 1–3 members | 3,132 | 27 | Ref | Ref |
| 4–8 members | 6,017 | 51 | 0.05 (0.03, 0.07)*** | 1.22 (1.07, 1.38)*** | |
| 9+ members | 2,637 | 22 | 0.06 (0.03, 0.08)*** | 1.38 (1.17, 1.63)*** | |
| Gender of household head at start of period | Female | 3,823 | 34 | Ref | Ref |
| Male | 7,318 | 66 | 0.03 (0.02, 0.05)*** | 1.3 (1.16, 1.46)*** | |
| Nationality of household head at start of period | Mozambican | 3,093 | 28 | Ref | Ref |
| South African | 8,048 | 72 | 0.13 (0.11, 0.14)*** | 1.9 (1.71, 2.1)*** | |
| Constant | 1.11 (1.08, 1.14)*** |
Note: 95% confidence interval: (lower bound, upper bound); Statistical significance.
* p<0.1;
** p<0.05;
*** p<0.01.