Table 1.

Implications of doubling Indonesia's annual oil-palm production (increase by 80 million tons) for land use, biodiversity, carbon, and food production under each development scenario

		Land uses converted (103 ha)
Scenario	Oil-palm expansion (103 ha)	Primary forest	Secondary forest	Agricultural land	Degraded land	Biodiversity loss (%)	Net carbon loss (106 tons)	Loss in annual food production capacity (106 tons)
Business-as-usual	3,097.09 ± 18.54	735.94 ± 92.5	684.38 ± 54.37	1,223.46 ± 66.47	453.31 ± 29.41	0.43 ± 0.04	278.16 ± 16.5	5.13 ± 0.26
Food production	3,181.89 ± 14.86	1,310.82 ± 48.08	767.29 ± 40.34	786.95 ± 22.61	316.83 ± 19.8	0.7 ± 0.02	366.22 ± 11.39	0 ± 0
Forest preservation	5,435.34 ± 70.59	0 ± 0	0 ± 0	0 ± 0	5,435.34 ± 70.59	0 ± 0	478.95 ± 40.44	9.97 ± 0.12
Carbon conservation	5,451.86 ± 0	178.71 ± 0	634.52 ± 0	2,527.33 ± 0	2111.3 ± 0	0.18 ± 0	−158.76 ± 0	9.78 ± 0
Hybrid approach	3,430.86 ± 3.65	0 ± 0	0 ± 0	1,601.74 ± 0	1,829.12 ± 3.65	0 ± 0	191.64 ± 5.38	1.88 ± 0

Net carbon loss was calculated as the difference between carbon loss (total biomass and peat soil carbon stocks) and carbon gain (above-ground carbon biomass in oil palm plantations). Values are mean ± SD of each outcome variable for 10,000 simulation runs.