Table 5.

Health impact of alternative scale-up scenarios in the GAVI-eligible countries

No	Scale-up scenarios	No. of children vaccinated (in million)	No. of outpatient visits averted (r = 0%) (in million)	No. of hospitalization averted (r = 0%) (in million)	No. of deaths averted (r = 0%) (in million)	YL saved (r = 3%) (in million)	DALYs averted (r = 3%) (in million)
1	Base-case rollout scenario (Table 2)
	Vaccine efficacy based on the SAGE approach
	Vaccine immunity waning (14% annually)	281.8	40.7	4.5	0.9	20.3	20.4
2	Base-case rollout scenario (Table 2)
	Vaccine efficacy based on the SAGE approach
	No vaccine immunity waning	281.8	44.1	4.9	1.0	22.0	22.1
3	Base-case rollout scenario (Table 2)
	Vaccine efficacy adjusted for serotype distribution
	Vaccine immunity waning (14% annually)	281.8	47.8	5.6	1.2	25.3	25.4
4a	Base-case rollout scenario (Table 2)
	Vaccine efficacy adjusted for serotype distribution
	No vaccine immunity waning	281.8	51.7	6.0	1.3	27.3	27.4
5	(Modified) Wolfson et al. scenario [37]
	Vaccine efficacy based on the SAGE approach
	No vaccine immunity waning	410.5	64.2	7.7	1.6	35.6	35.7
6	(Modified) Wolfson et al. scenario [37]
	Vaccine efficacy adjusted for serotype distribution
	No vaccine immunity waning	410.5	81.4	10.4	2.2	48.1	48.3
7	A flat coverage of 70%
	Vaccine efficacy based on the SAGE approach
	No vaccine immunity waning	537.0	85.9	10.1	2.1	48.9	49.1
8	A flat coverage of 70%
	Vaccine efficacy adjusted for serotype distribution
	No vaccine immunity waning	537.0	106.6	13.3	2.8	64.5	64.7

r = discount rate; YL = years of life; DALYs = disability-adjusted life-years; I$ = international dollars; SAGE = Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization.

a Base-case analysis.