Table 1. Sensitivity analysis of the effective reproduction number [R] and the mean serial interval [MSI] for the simulation results.

R\MSI	2.0	2.5	2.8	3.0	3.5	4.0
1.2	32.3 (9.5)	46.5 (11.5)	56.3 (14.3)	62.6 (15.5)	78.3 (20.3)	96.5 (25.2)
1.4	19.3 (4.9)	27.41 (6.5)	33.0 (7.7)	35.4 (9.0)	45.0 (9.7)	55.4 (13.2)
1.5	16.6 (4.2)	23.3 (5.5)	27.8 (6.3)	30.6 (7.1)	37.8 (7.7)	46.1 (9.9)
1.6	14.6 (3.6)	19.9 (5.1)	23.9 (5.5)	27.2 (5.8)	32.9 (7.0)	39.2 (8.3)
1.8	11.6 (2.8)	16.1 (3.7)	19.3 (4.6)	21.2 (4.8)	25.7 (6.0)	31.6 (6.4)

The table shows the simulated average number of days before 29 May 2009 that the outbreak in Victoria should have commenced, in order to match the actual case numbers observed on 29 May 2009. Each reproduction number/serial interval combination is the average number of days (and standard deviation) of 1,000 simulations for those values.