Table IV.
Within-sample fit
| 60 Females | 65 Females | 60 Males | 65 Males | Overall | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed | Predicted | Observed | Predicted | Observed | Predicted | Observed | Predicted | Observed | Predicted | |
| Fraction choosing 0 year guarantee | 14.00 | 14.42 | 15.98 | 15.32 | 15.30 | 14.49 | 6.99 | 7.10 | 10.24 | 10.22 |
| Fraction choosing 5 year guarantee | 83.94 | 83.16 | 82.03 | 83.21 | 78.67 | 80.27 | 89.98 | 89.75 | 86.52 | 86.57 |
| Fraction choosing 10 year guarantee | 2.06 | 2.42 | 2.00 | 1.47 | 6.03 | 5.25 | 3.04 | 3.15 | 3.24 | 3.22 |
| Fraction who die within observed mortality period: | ||||||||||
| Entire sample | 8.44 | 7.56 | 12.29 | 14.23 | 17.04 | 19.73 | 25.56 | 25.80 | 20.03 | 20.20 |
| Among those choosing 0 year guarantee | 6.75 | 6.98 | 7.69 | 13.21 | 17.65 | 18.32 | 22.77 | 23.14 | 15.75 | 18.60 |
| Among those choosing 5 year guarantee | 8.74 | 7.63 | 13.30 | 14.39 | 16.99 | 19.86 | 25.87 | 25.31 | 20.60 | 20.31 |
| Among those choosing 10 year guarantee | 8.11 | 8.48 | 7.69 | 16.05 | 16.09 | 21.67 | 22.89 | 27.88 | 18.48 | 22.37 |
This table summarizes the fit of our estimates within sample. For each age-gender cell, we report the observed quantity (identical to Table I) and the corresponding quantity predicted by the model. To construct the predicted death probability, we account for the fact that our mortality data is both censored and truncated, by computing predicted death probability for each individual in the data conditional on the date of annuity choice, and then integrating over all individuals.