Table 3.
Results of sample simulation runs
| Simulation run number | Overall serologic attack rate (%) | Total number of health care workers infected | Peak total population infections | Distribution of where infections occurred | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % of total infections in community | % of total infections in households | % of total infections in schools | % of total infections in workplaces | ||||
| 1 | 33·3 | 5196 | 16 425 | 33·2 | 29·9 | 24·4 | 12·5 |
| 2 | 34·0 | 5325 | 16 476 | 33·2 | 30·1 | 24·1 | 12·6 |
| 3 | 34·1 | 5323 | 17 079 | 33·2 | 29·9 | 24·3 | 12·6 |
| 4 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 5 | 34·0 | 5304 | 16 625 | 33·4 | 30·1 | 24·1 | 12·5 |
| 6 | 34·2 | 5374 | 16 474 | 33·2 | 30·0 | 24·1 | 12·6 |
| 7 | 33·7 | 5210 | 16 400 | 33·3 | 29·9 | 24·4 | 12·4 |
| 8 | 33·9 | 5225 | 16 813 | 33·4 | 29·9 | 24·4 | 12·4 |
| 9 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 10 | 34·2 | 5324 | 16 994 | 33·4 | 30·0 | 24·1 | 12·5 |
| *Ave | 33·9 | 5285 | 16 661 | 33·3 | 30·0 | 24·2 | 12·5 |
*Ave = the average of the eight runs that resulted in an epidemic. Two of the 10 runs did not result in an epidemic and, based on a larger sample, an estimated 82% of runs would be realized. The runs covered a period of 124–140 days. Each run peaks on one of two Fridays (day 48 or 55) and estimated attack rate exhibits a small variance.