Table 2.
Probability of Suicide Ideation, 6–48 mo (n = 529)a |
Probability of Suicide Attempt, 6–48 mo (n = 529)b |
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Risk category (variables measured at baseline) | % (n) | OR (95% CI)c | % (n) | OR (95% CI)d |
Low (n = 169): no history of suicide attempt at baseline and having no more than 2 risk factors (ie, older than 28 years at admission, SAPS [disorganization] below 5.5, no substance abuse history, and depression scores < 18) | 12.4 (21/169) | — | 4.1 (7/169) | — |
Intermediate (n = 212): no history of suicide attempt at baseline and having 3 or more other risk factors | 23.1 (49/212) | 1.90 (1.14–3.18) | 9.9 (21/212) | 2.42 (1.03–5.70) |
High (n = 148): history of suicide attempt and 1 or more risk factors | 52.0 (77/148) | 4.91 (3.02–7.96) | 29.7 (44/148) | 7.97 (3.59–17.70) |
Note: OR = odds ratio, CI = confidence interval, SAPS = Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms.
In the subsequent ideation model, the 3 groups were also dichotomized into low and intermediate vs high categories, OR = 4.81, CI = 3.18–7.28. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values are as follows: 52.3%, 18.5%, and 52.0%, respectively.
In the subsequent attempts model, the 3 groups were also dichotomized into low and intermediate vs high categories, OR = 5.33, CI = 3.16–8.98. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values are as follows: 61.1%, 22.7%, and 29.7%, respectively.
Cox regression predicting subsequent ideation, with risk index entered as a categorical variable with simple contrast. Omnibus Test of Model Coefficients (likelihood ratio) was significant (−2 log likelihood = 1746.43), overall score: χ2 = 56.19, df = 3, P < .001.
Cox regression predicting subsequent attempts, with risk index entered as a categorical variable with simple contrast. Omnibus Test of Model Coefficients (likelihood ratio) was significant (−2 log likelihood = 834.420), overall score: χ2 = 48.79, df = 3, P < .001.