Table 3.
Percentage (95% confidence interval) of doctors working in each mainstream specialty 10 years after graduation, who gave the specialty as an untied first choice one, three, or five years after graduation, according to whether choice was specified as definite, probable, or uncertain
| Certainty of choice by cohorts | Period after graduation | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5* | |
| 1993 and 1996 graduates: | |||
| Definite | 73.5 (70.8 to 76.3) | 86.4 (84.7 to 88.1) | 92.1 (90.8 to 93.1) |
| Probable | 53.6 (51.3 to 56.0) | 69.7 (67.4 to 72.1) | 74.1 (71.4 to 76.8) |
| Uncertain | 28.7 (25.5 to 32.0) | 34.4 (29.8 to 39.0) | 41.3 (34.2 to 48.4) |
| Total† | 53.9 (52.2 to 55.6) | 69.7 (68.2 to 71.2) | 82.7 (81.5 to 84.0) |
| 1974, 1977, and 1983 graduates: | |||
| Definite | 74.2 (72.2 to 76.2) | 86.7 (85.5 to 88.0) | 90.9 (89.7 to 92.1) |
| Probable | 52.2 (50.4 to 53.9) | 68.2 (66.2 to 70.2) | 72.1 (69.3 to 74.8) |
| Uncertain | 23.7 (21.4 to 26.1) | 34.0 (30.3 to 37.7) | 35.0 (29.0 to 41.0) |
| Total† | 52.8 (51.6 to 54.1) | 73.6 (72.5 to 74.7) | 81.6 (80.4 to 82.9) |
See web extra for numbers on which percentages are based.
Values are calculated from numerator of all doctors in post in year 10 whose specialty in year 10 was that chosen in year 1 (or 3 or 5), and whose choice was definite (or probable or uncertain), and denominator comprising all doctors in cell of table known by us to be in specialty in year 10 and whose year 1 (or 3 or 5) intentions and level of certainty of choice were known to us (=100%).
*Year 5 data excludes the 1983 cohort.
†Includes respondents who did not reply to definiteness of choice question (see web extra).