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. 2010 Jun 21;107(26):11703–11708. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0909605107

Table 1.

The role of mitigation of carbonaceous aerosols from CC in achieving a 3.1 W m-2 (500 ppm CO2e) RF target in 2100.

2100 CO2 targets Change in timing of 50% CO2 target (years)
RF(W m-2) Conc. (ppm)
“Best” RF estimate (0.22 W m-2)
Full mitigation 2.21 420
Constant emission 2.00 404 8.4
A2 2.06 408 5.2
B1 2.11 413 3.1
“Low” RF estimate (0.02 W m-2)
Full mitigation 2.21 420
Constant emission 2.19 419 0.8
A2 2.19 419 0.8
B1 2.18 418 1.1
“High” RF estimate (0.37 W m-2)
Full mitigation 2.21 420
Constant emission 1.84 392 14.5
A2 1.94 399 10.9
B1 2.04 407 6.0

For each estimate of carbonaceous aerosol RF (best, low, high), we report the resulting targets for CO2 RF and concentrations in 2100. In the constant emissions scenarios, carbonaceous aerosol emissions are maintained at 1996 levels. Change in timing of 50% CO2 target records the number of years earlier than in the full mitigation scenario that CO2 emissions must be cut to 50% of their 2005 levels to achieve the 3.1 W m-2 (500 ppm CO2e) RF target in 2100.