TABLE 3.

Effects of varying the length of school closure

Closure length	Reproductive rate (R0) = 1.4				R0 = 1.7				R0 = 1.9				R0 = 2.4
	AR, %	PD	PI	ΔPI, %	AR, %	PD	PI	ΔPI, %	AR, %	PD	PI	ΔPI, %	AR, %	PD	PI	ΔPI, %
Unmitigated	35.1	68	12 113	…	40.2	56	15 895	…	43.2	56	19 668	…	53	44	30 442	…
School system closure, wk
1	35.5	68	12 841	6.0	40.9	60	16 221	2.0	43.6	56	20 519	4.3	53.5	48	33 090	8.7
2	35.0	76	11 932	−1.5	40.6	68	15 643	−1.6	43.4	60	18 495	−6.0	53.3	48	34 300	12.7
4	33.2	84	9 975	−17.7	39.1	68	12 857	−19.1	41.9	68	15 799	−19.7	50.8	56	20 744	−31.9
8	25.1	76	5 099	−57.9	32.2	64	8 817	−44.7	34.2	60	9 560	−51.4	43.6	48	20 404	−33.0
16	21.9	76	5 119	−57.7	29.6	64	8 735	−45.0	29.3	64	8 645	−56.0	43.0	48	20 354	−33.1
Individual school closure
1	33.7	76	11 834	−2.3	40.6	64	15 546	−2.2	42.7	60	18 001	−8.5	52.8	48	33 234	9.2
2	33.2	76	11 458	−5.4	40.3	68	16 122	1.4	42.4	64	17 445	−11.3	52.5	48	32 315	6.2
4	31.8	84	10 106	−16.6	39.3	76	14 379	−9.5	41.4	68	15 842	−19.5	50.7	56	23 823	−21.7
8	25.3	96	6 290	−48.1	33.7	68	8 527	−46.4	35.5	68	8 851	−55.0	43.5	52	18 997	−37.6
16	19.4	84	4 460	−63.2	29.0	72	8 530	46.3	29.9	68	8 894	−54.8	42.2	52	19 031	−37.5

Abbreviations: AR, serologic attack rate; PD, epidemic peak day; PI, epidemic peak incidence; and ΔPI, change in peak incidence compare to unmitigated scenario.