. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2010 Jul 9.

Published in final edited form as: J Public Health Manag Pract. 2010 May–Jun;16(3):252–261. doi: 10.1097/PHH.0b013e3181ce594e

TABLE 4.

Effects of varying the trigger for school closure

Trigger for school closure	Reproductive rate (R₀) = 1.4				R₀ = 1.7				R₀ = 1.9				R₀ = 2.4
Trigger for school closure	AR, %	PD	PI	ΔPI, %	AR, %	PD	PI	ΔPI, %	AR, %	PD	PI	ΔPI, %	AR, %	PD	PI	ΔPI, %
Unmitigated	35.1	68	12 113	…	40.2	56	15895	…	43.3	56	19 668	…	52.3	44	30 442	…
Symptomatic cases per school
1	25.3	96	6 290	−48.1	33.7	68	8 527	−46.4	35.5	68	8 851	−55.0	43.5	52	18 997	−37.6
5	23.9	68	5 332	−56.0	30.9	64	8 782	−44.8	32.7	60	9 566	−51.4	43.1	52	20 114	−33.9
10	25.3	68	6 652	−45.1	31.5	60	9 843	−38.1	33.0	56	10 862	−44.8	43.7	4	20 524	−32.6
Symptomatic cases in population (% of overall population)
0.10	30.5	96	9 349	−22.8	36.7	84	9 591	−36.7	39.6	76	10 369	−47.3	45.7	52	19 370	−36.4
0.50	27.0	96	5 787	−52.2	33.5	68	8 606	−45.8	36.0	64	9 474	−51.8	43.9	48	20 086	−34.0
1.00	25.3	96	6 290	−48.1	32.2	64	8 817	−44.5	34.2	60	9 560	−51.4	43.6	48	20 404	−33.0
1.50	24.5	68	5 275	−56.5	31.3	64	9 932	−44.4	33.6	56	9 850	−49.9	43.5	48	20 787	−31.7

Abbreviations: AR, serologic attack rate; PD, epidemic peak day; PI; epidemic peak incidence; and ΔPI, change in peak incidence compare to unmitigated scenario.